Pro Football 101

Here’s our top three picks for the suicide pool in Week Eight.

1. Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Cowboys are coming off an impressive win over the Falcons and appear to have found their No. 1 receiver in Miles Austin. He’s taking pressure off of the other receivers and this is making Tony Romo and the offense that much more effective. The Seahawks on the other hand are reeling and have lost some key players for the season recently (LB Lofa Tatupu, LT Walter Jones). Expect a big win by Dallas on Sunday.

2. Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns

Aside from their 14 point outburst in Pittsburgh, which happened to be a 13 point loss, the Browns have scored 15 total points in their other three road games. And it doesn’t get any easier this week as they head into Chicago to play an angry Bears team. Look for another futile showing from the Browns and a 20-point romp by Cutler and Co.

3. San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders

The Chargers finally got their act together with the 30-point demolishing of the Kansas City Chiefs. In that game, their defense attacked the QB and forced turnovers, something they hadn’t done up until that point. Expect another stellar showing by the Chargers when the lowly Raiders come to town and for JaMarcus Russell to once again find himself on the bench after multiple turnovers.

Fantasy Booms

1. QB Drew Brees vs. Atlanta Falcons

After two sub par games vs the Bills and Jets, Brees is back on fire after torching the New York Giants and leading the comeback against the Dolphins. And this week, he gets a Falcons opponent that is hurting in the secondary. Expect another 300-yard game and for Brees to locate Colston, Shockey, Moore and Co. for at least three TDs.

2. RB Steven Jackson vs. Detroit Lions

Jackson was able to run for 134 yards in their 36-point defeat to the Colts. This week, in a game between two of the worst teams in the league, expect a much closer affair, and for Jackson to eclipse the 100 yard mark and find the end zone  for the first time this season. He might get there twice.

3. WR Mike Sims-Walker vs. Tennessee Titans

Sims-Walker totaled 91 yards and two TDs in his last game against the Titans. And that was against a healthier Titans secondary. For this one, some of Tennessee’s key members in the secondary will be out of action so look for Sims-Walker to top 100 receiving yards with at least one score.

Fantasy Busts

1. QB Kurt Warner vs. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have the No. 1 pass defense in the league and will force Arizona to be more balanced in their offensive attack. A bigger role out of Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower will diminish Warner’s fantasy football numbers in Week Eight.

2. RB Thomas Jones vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have the No. 2 run defense in football and will stack the line this week vs. the Jets. They’re going to bet that Sanchez can’t beat them. So, facing eight and nine man fronts, look for a substantial drop off in numbers for Jones on Sunday.

3. WR Derrick Mason vs. Denver Broncos

The surprising 6-0 Broncos are winning games because of their defense and we expect CB Champ Bailey to lock onto Mason all day in Week Eight. While Mason and Flacco have put up solid numbers to this point, don’t expect anything of consequence on Sunday.

We rebounded nicely in Week Seven hitting on five of our seven picks (71%) against the point spread. It would’ve been six of seven had Chad Henne not thrown that last minute pick six to give the Saints a 12-point victory. Now, our game picks for Week Eight.

Best Bets

1. Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Denver Broncos

All right, the Broncos have been an amazing story through six games, surprising everyone with their undefeated start, but reality sets in on Sunday when they head to Baltimore. The Ravens, also coming off a bye week, will get back to playing smash mouth football, and look for a solid defense effort from Ray Lewis and Co. Our best bet of Week Eight will win by at least seven.

Next In Line

2. Chicago Bears (-13.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

The Browns have scored just 29 points in four road games in 2009 and are coming off a three-point effort vs. the Packers. The Bears on the other hand, were destroyed by the Bengals in Week Eight, and can’t take the field fast enough to move past that embarrassing showing. They’ll also have DT Tommy Harris back in the lineup and this will shore up their shoddy run defense from a week ago. Look for a big win by the Bears on Sunday.

3. San Diego Chargers (-16.5) vs. Oakland Raiders

When the Raiders aren’t upsetting a team like the Eagles, they’re getting battered by everyone else. The only reason the spread is 16.5 is because the sports books want equal wagering; otherwise, it’d be at least three TDs, which is what San Diego will by on Sunday. Look for another spirited effort from the Bolts defense which should limit the Raiders to under 10 points.

4. Miami Dolphins (+3.5) vs. New York Jets

See Money Line Analysis

Others We Like

Indianapolis Colts (-13.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Colts offense is firing on all cylinders and should be fine even if Reggie Wayne is forced to miss the game. Defensively, S Bob Sanders is back in the fold, which makes a huge difference to this unit, and with a week to prepare for Alex Smith and Co., we expect a dominating effort on Sunday. Expect a 34-14 type outcome.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) vs. Tennessee Titans

It’s a bit surprising to see the Jaguars as underdogs to the 0-6 Titans, especially with Vince Young set to play, but three points usually means that the sports books see this game as being even. We don’t. Look for the Jags offense, led by MJD and Mike Sims-Walker, to be the difference in this contest, and for Jacksonville to pull out the close win on Sunday.

New Orleans Saints (-10) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Had the Falcons not suffered so many injuries to its defense, we’d be leaning towards them and the points; but as it stands now, the Saints have too much firepower for the Falcons defense to contend with. And for as talented a QB as Matt Ryan is, Atlanta isn’t built to win shootouts. Expect the Saints big on Monday Night.

Money Line

Miami Dolphins (+160) vs. New York Jets

There’s more on the line for the Dolphins this week after they blew a 21-point 1st half lead to the Saints in South Beach last Sunday. If they don’t win, they’ll fall to 2-5 and their season is effectively over.

Offensively, look for Miami to continue to pound the rock with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown and utilize the Wild Cat formation. While the Jets claim they’ll be better prepared to stop it this time, they’ll be without their key defensive run stuffer (DT Kris Jenkins) who was lost for the season vs. the Bills.  We think the Dolphins will continue to have success on the ground and this will open up for the short passing game for Henne.

Defensively, Miami will put the game – and ball – in Sanchez’s hands in order for New York to win. And don’t let the Raiders game deceive you; he won’t be able to carry this team on his back. Miami, and it’s No. 3 rushing defense, will stifle Thomas Jones all day, and this will put Sanchez into unfavorable passing situations which the Dolphins will take advantage of.

While weather could play a role in this game, the outcome will still remain the same: Dolphins 21- Jets 17.

2009 Record Against The Point Spread

Overall 63%

Best Bets 3-4

Next In Line 15-6

Others We Like 12-9

Money Line 5-2

1. Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns

With so many stellar fantasy football D/ST units on the sidelines, the Bears, coming off a 35- point shellacking at the hands of the Bengals, get the nod facing the  lowly Browns in Chicago. Cleveland is averaging a shade over seven points per game on the road and is coming off a three point showing against the Packers. Expect a dominating effort out of the Bears, who should have DT Tommie Harris back for this one, and at least one TD on Sunday.

2. Indianapolis Colts vs. San Francisco 49ers

Alex Smith roared his team back with three TDs in the 2nd half vs. the Texans, but Houston wasn’t prepared to face him. Indianapolis will have had an entire week to game plan for Smith and with the return of star S Bob Sanders to the secondary, we see another dominating performance from the Colts in Week Eight.

3. San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders

Anyone who faces the JaMarcus Russell led Raiders deserves top four consideration. After a rough start to the season, the Chargers defense had an excellent outing against the Chiefs and limited them to seven points while forcing turnovers. Expect another big time performance at the Q.

4. Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks enter this game playing with a makeshift offensive line that isn’t properly blocking for Matt Hasselback or creating running room for Julius Jones and the running game. They were limited to three points against the Cardinals in Week Six and the Cowboys defense played a strong game against the Falcons last Sunday. Expect good things from the Cowboys on Sunday.

Sleepers

1. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

Rumors are swirling that the Titans will go back to Vince Young as early as this week. Jacksonville D/ST fantasy owners are praying that this actually happens. If it does, expect multiple sacks and a few turnovers for our top fantasy sleeper in Week Eight.

2. Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers

The Cardinals feature the best run defense in football and will take away the only thing the Panthers offense does well: run the ball. Jake Delhomme has become a turnover machine and the Cards opportunistic secondary will be good for at least two picks on Sunday.

Others We Like

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

There’s an old saying ” fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.” In their first meeting, the Wild Cat formation gave the Jets fits and the Dolphins racked up 31 points. Expect a much different approach to stopping it on Sunday. They should be able to get to Henne a few times as well.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos

The Ravens are coming off their bye week and should have had time to correct some of their defensive issues against the pass. Look for a concerted effort to limit Moreno and Co. and then for the front seven to attack Kyle Orton and force him into mistakes.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

The Viking employ the perfect defense – aggressive – to create problems for the Green Bay Packers. The Packers, while loaded at the skill positions, are thin along the offensive line, and Jared Allen and Co. will utilize a blitz heavy package to keep Green Bay from finding its rhythm on offense. Percy Harvin returned a KO for a TD in Week Seven.

A Few More

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

1. Antonio Gates vs. Oakland Raiders

Gates has been playing very well in 2009 and he and Rivers seem to have re-discovered the chemistry they had in 2006. He’s also healthy, a nightmare match-up for defensive coordinators, and expect him to reel in over 90 yards and a TD vs. the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. He’s our top ranked fantasy football TE in Week Eight.

2. Jeremy Shockey vs. Atlanta Falcons

Shockey’s enjoying a fine second season in New Orleans and Sean Payton’s creating mismatches for his TE which Drew Brees is exploiting. This week’s game should be a high scoring affair and we like Shockey to find the end zone at least once.

3. Dallas Clark vs. San Francisco 49ers

Owen Daniels just torched the middle of the Niners defense for 100 yards and a long TD. Clark’s one of Manning’s favorite targets and if Reggie Wayne is limited, it’ll increase his number of targets against a suspect Niners secondary.

4. Brent Celek vs. New York Giants

The Giants defense has a glaring weakness in center field (S C.C. Brown) and you know Andy Reid and Co. will look to exploit this part of the defense throughout the afternoon. Celek’s become one of McNabb’s top targets and we expect him to have a big day and notch a TD.

Sleepers

1. Mercedes Lewis vs. Tennessee Titans

Lewis has been inconsistent, if anything, but we like this favorable match-up against the reeling Tennessee Titans secondary. The Jags are going to have little trouble moving the ball through the air and we think Lewis, a solid fantasy sleeper in Week Eight, will find the end zone.

2. Zach Miller vs. San Diego Chargers

Miller’s not allowed to showcase his skills because JaMarcus Russell is the worst QB in the league. Miller can rattle off games like the one he had vs. the Eagles, over 100 yards and a long TD, or like against the Jets, where he had two catches for 15 yards. The Chargers have coverage issues down the seam and Miller’s historically fared well vs. the Bolts.

Others We Like

Tony Gonzalez vs. New Orleans Saints

The Monday Night affair could be a shootout. Both teams have potent passing games and Atlanta will have trouble running the ball against the Saints defense. So look for Gonzalez to be on the receiving end of a lot of Ryan’s passes.

Vernon Davis vs. Indianapolis Colts

Davis is coming off an outstanding three TD performance against the Houston Texans.  The insertion of QB Alex Smith at the half proved the catalyst which led to Davis’s huge game. The Niners will need to pass the ball to stay with the Colts so expect good things from Davis.

Jason Witten vs. Seattle Seahawks

Witten’s role in the offense expanded against the Falcons as he was allowed to receive rather than block for most of the afternoon. Expect more of that on Sunday and for Witten to have a strong outing with a TD.

A Few More

Kevin Boss vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Visanthe Schiancoe vs. Green Bay Packers

Greg Olsen vs. Cleveland Browns

Owen Daniels vs. Buffalo Bills

1. Marques Colston vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons secondary is severely depleted and just gave up 171 yards and two TDs to the Cowboys Miles Austin. Colston and Brees are playing on another level in 2009 and we see him having a huge night on Monday with 150 yards and two TDs. He’s our top ranked fantasy football WR in Week Eight.

2. Reggie Wayne vs. San Francisco 49ers

Manning’s No. 1 target has caught a TD in all but one game in 2009. He’s almost impossible to cover one-on-one and CB Nate Clements has had trouble against top tier WRs (Roddy White). Look for Wayne to top 100 yards on Sunday and take one long one to the house.

3. Brandon Marshall vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens defense, usually formidable against both the run and pass, has been lit up through the air this season. Opposing receivers have feasted off sub par coverage. Look for Marshall to continue his strong run of the past month and top 100 yards on Sunday.

4. Vincent Jackson vs. Oakland Raiders

Jackson’s become San Diego’s big play receiver and he and Rivers have built upon the strong rapport they developed in 2008. In last week’s game at Kansas City, Jackson caught five passes for 142 yards and a TD. Look for another strong effort right back against the Raiders.

Sleepers

1. Hakeem Nicks vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Nicks enters this week with four TDs in the past four games. While last week’s was certainly a gift, the rookie has shown a knack for making big plays. Look for Eli to target him more frequently vs. the Eagles  and for Nicks to reach the end zone for the fifth straight game.

2. Sidney Rice vs. Green Bay Packers

Rice’s career has taken a huge step forward with the addition of Brett Favre. The 40-year old hurler trusts the young receiver to make plays and Rice has responded (11 catches for 136 vs. the Steelers). Look for another big game for Rice on Sunday. He’s an excellent fantasy sleeper vs. the Packers.

Others We Like

Roddy White vs. New Orleans Saints

White is a handful for secondaries to deal with and will present match-up problems for the Saints smaller DBs. Look for Ryan to target him frequently and for White to top 100 yards on the evening.

Mike Sims-Walker vs. Tennessee Titans

Sims-Walker is a strong play based solely on the fact that the Titans play no pass defense. The last time these two teams met, Garrard tossed for over 300 yards and Sims-Walker reeled in 91 yards and two TDs. Look for a repeat performance in Week Eight.

Miles Austin vs. Seattle Seahawks

Until someone stops him, we’re riding the Miles Austin bandwagon. Austin has amassed over 400 yards and four TDs in the past two games and the Seahawks secondary is lacking in talent.

A Few More

DeSean Jackson vs. New York Giants

Andre Johnson vs. Buffalo Bills

Greg Jennings vs. Minnesota Vikings

1. Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Tennessee Titans

The Titans officially gave up on the season in their 59-0 loss to the Patriots. In that game, Laurence Maroney, one of the biggest enigmas in the NFL, came off the bench and rolled for 123 yards and a TD. This week, they face MJD, who’s coming off a bye after a three TD performance against the Rams. Expect another 100 yard game with at least two TDs for our top ranked fantasy football RB in Week Eight.

2. Steve Slaton vs. Buffalo Bills

Slaton rattled off two TDs (one on the ground, one in the air) vs. the 49ers on Sunday. He now faces the Bills who gave up 300 yards on the ground to the Jets two weeks ago and another 116 to the Panthers in Week Seven. Look for the Texans to feed the ball to Slaton and for the second-year back to finish with over 100 yards and one, possibly two scores.

3. Steven Jackson vs. Detroit Lions

One of the only bright spots for the Rams this season has been the re-emergence of Steven Jackson as a top flight RB after two injury riddled seasons. And last week, even though they were down big, he still finished with 134 yards vs. the Colts to the delight of fantasy owners. Expect another solid performance and over 100 yards on the ground vs Detroit.

4. Adrian Peterson vs. Green Bay Packers

Peterson took on a tough Steelers defense and still managed to top 100 total yards with a score. He’ll find running against the Packers a much easier assignment and we expect him to top the century mark on the ground with at least one TD, maybe two.

Sleepers

1. Mike Bell vs. Atlanta Falcons

While it was initially thought that Bell would be nothing more than a hold over for Pierre Thomas to start the season, he’s actually worked his way into the rotation and is the primary goal line runner. He’s an excellent fantasy sleeper in Week Eight and has a great opportunity to notch a few TDs as the Saints offense should give Atlanta all it can handle.

2. Matt Forte vs. Cleveland Browns

Matt Forte has been one of the biggest fantasy busts in 2009. After being taken at the top of most fantasy drafts, he’s been outperformed by guys taken at the bottom (RB Fred Jackson). He gets a break on Sunday though when the Browns come to town; they’ve been run over all season (149 yards to Ryan Grant on Sunday) and we expect Forte to break loose in Week Eight.

Others We Like

Kevin Smith vs. St. Louis Rams

The Rams have given up a lot of yards on the ground and there’s little indication that that trend is going to stop. Look for Smith to receive at least 20 carries and finish with over 100 yards and a score.

Pierre Thomas vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have lost key members to the interior of its defense and don’t stack up well against the better running teams.  Look for Thomas to have a big Monday Night.

LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders come into this game having surrendered 316 rushing yards to the Jets in Week Seven. Stopping the run obviously isn’t a part of their defensive approach. If Tomlinson is going to run for 100 yards in any game this season, this seems to be the one.

A Few More

Ray Rice vs. Denver Broncos

Marion Barber vs. Seattle Seahawks

Chris Johnson vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

1. QB Drew Brees vs. Atlanta Falcons

Brees overcame a tough start (3 INTs) vs. the Miami Dolphins and still threw for 298 yards and a score in their win on Sunday. This week’s game won’t be so tough; the Falcons are depleted in their secondary and Brees will throw for over 300 yards and three TDs. He’s our top ranked fantasy football QB in Week Eight.

2. QB Peyton Manning vs. San Francisco 49ers

Manning continued his stellar 2009 season with 235 yards and three TDs vs. the Rams. Had the game not turned into a blowout, he easily would’ve surpassed 300 yards. This is another easy match-up for the Colts and Manning can be expected to throw for at least three TDs.

3. QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Minnesota Vikings

Despite playing behind a porous offensive line, Rodgers has performed extremely well and put up solid fantasy numbers. In their last game against Minnesota, he tossed for 384 yards and a few scores. For this match-up, the Vikings are down CB Antoine Winfield, so look for Rodgers to once again again reach 300 yards with at least two TDs.

4. QB Phillip Rivers vs. Oakland Raiders

Rivers fantasy stock increased to an even greater extent after LaDainian Tomlinson failed to score on eight rushing attempts inside the 10 vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. It signaled that San Diego would need to pass in order to score. Look for Rivers, who is coming off a three TD performance, to continue his hot passing with another 250 yard game and three TDs vs. the Raiders.

Sleepers

1. Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Houston Texans

The addition of Fitzpatrick into the Bills offense has re-established the team’s deep passing game. Lee Evans is now stretching opposing defenses and this is opening up the middle of the field. Look for Fitzpatrick to be a great fantasy sleeper in Week Eight and to find a lot of success against a suspect Texans secondary.

2. Kyle Orton vs. Baltimore Ravens

Most of the damage done against the Ravens defense in 2009 has come through the air, so look for Denver to attack this weakness. We expect Orton to target Marshall and Royal throughout the afternoon and to finish with over 225 yards and two TDs.

Others We Like

Matt Ryan vs. New Orleans Saints

For the Falcons to win on Monday, they’re going to need to throw. Expect Ryan to find a lot of success targeting Gonzalez and White and finish with over 250 yards and two scores.

Donovan McNabb vs. New York Giants

The Giants did a better job of pressuring the QB on Sunday Night but they’re still vulnerable in the passing game… especially in the middle of the field where S C.C. Brown plays. Look for McNabb and Co. to attack this part of the defense.

David Garrard vs. Tennessee Titans

Garrard a must start in Week Eight because the Titans feature the worst pass defense in the NFL. In their Week Four meeting, he passed for 323 yards and three TDs. Look for a similar outcome in this one.

A Few More

Jay Cutler vs. Cleveland Browns

Matt Schaub vs. Buffalo Bills

Tony Romo vs. Seattle Seahawks

Thanks to a few comments from followers of this blog, we’re adjusting our approach to the weekly suicide pool. Often times, people have more than one entry into a (suicide) pool, so going forward, we’re going to give our top three picks for the week.

Our top pick will be a team we haven’t used yet and who we’d go with.

1. New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Patriots are playing the Bucs across the Atlantic this weekend. Unless the turf is in such bad condition that it doesn’t allow Brady and the passing game to get on track, this will be a laugher. Belichick has never shied from running up a score and that’s not going to begin this week.

2. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins

The Eagles are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Raiders but still find themselves at 3-2. The Redskins on the other hand are a mess right now and that turmoil has made its way to the front office. Look for Reid to feature a balanced attack this week (46 passes, 14 runs last week) and put the Skins out of their misery on Monday Night.

3. Carolina Panthers vs. Buffalo Bills

After their 0-3 start, the Panthers have battled back with two consecutive wins. Sunday will be their third. The Panthers will be able to run the Bills into the ground (Williams, Stewart) and control the tempo to the game. This running success will take all of the pressure off Delhomme and allow him to utilize the short passing game to keep the chains moving. Defensively, they’ll be able to control Fitzpatrick and Co.

Fantasy Booms

1. QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. Minnesota Vikings

The way to attack the Vikings defense is through the air. Fighting for yards on the ground is usually a losing battle. This week, Minnesota is most likely without CB Antoine Winfield, which will allow the Steelers to create favorable match-ups against the secondary. Expect Roethlisberger to target Ward, Holmes, Wallace and Miller all afternoon for over 300 yards and 2-3 TDs.

2. RB DeAngelo Williams vs. Buffalo Bills

The DeAngelo Williams of 2008 showed up last week as he rattled off 152 and two TDs vs. the Bucs. He gets another easy match-up this week against the Bills, who just gave up over 300 total yards on the ground to the Jets in Week Six. Expect Williams to bust for over 125 on Sunday with at least two scores.

3. WR Andre Johnson vs. San Francisco 49ers

If the last time CB Nate Clements played vs. a top receiver is any indication of how things will go on Sunday, Johnson owners should be excited. Clements, and the rest of the 49ers DBs, were beaten for over 200 yards and two TDs by Atlanta’s Roddy White. Look for another 100 yards from Johnson plus a long score.

Fantasy Busts

1. QB Brett Favre vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Favre’s been on an excellent run over the past month while leading his team to a 6-0 record. But those games came in the Metrodome; this will be played in Pittsburgh, in colder weather and on the grass. Look for the Steelers aggressive defense to make Favre’s life miserable and force the 40 year old QB into multiple mistakes in Week Seven.

2. RB Pierre Thomas vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins currently boast the league’s No. 2 ranked rushing defense so you can bet Sean Payton has designs to attack through the air. Unless the Saints jump out to a commanding lead, which is something we don’t think will happen, Thomas is line for a quiet afternoon.

3. WR Terrell Owens vs. Carolina Panthers

Has anyone else’s star fallen faster than T.O.’s? Buffalo’s become the NFL’s equivalent of Russia’s Siberia; you’re no longer heard from once you’re sent there.  The Panthers defense should be able to control the tempo on Sunday and limit the effectiveness of the Bills passing game, which could see Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Expect another lackluster fantasy football performance for Owens this week.