Pro Football 101

With the NFL Draft having come and gone, it’s now time to see which rookie receiver will have the greatest fantasy impact in 2009.

To quickly recap the receivers taken, at the top we had the reach of the decade, WR Darrius Hayward-Bey, to Oakland, followed by who many considered to be the best receiver prospect in the Draft, WR Michael Crabtree to San Francisco.

After that went WR Jeremy Maclin to Philadelphia, then WR Percy Harvin to Minnesota, WR Hakeem Nicks to the New York (Giants) and WR Kenny Britt to the Tennessee.

Heyward-Bey and Crabtree can already be disqualified based on their current offensive situations; Britt’s not going to a pass oriented offense and while Nicks will have a chance to be productive, the 2009 Giants will place a heavy emphasis on running the football.

So that leaves us with two: Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin.

While Maclin will certainly be in the more ideal situation—Philly passes the ball over 60% of the time and McNabb’s an established, Pro Bowl QB—he’ll start out as the third receiver at best (fourth passing option after Westbrook) and that’s why in the end, I see Harvin being the top fantasy producer.

Coach Childress will utilize his versatility and game breaking ability similar to how Urban Meyer did at Florida, by lining him up all over the field.

And since, unlike in Florida, where he was the number one focus of opposing defenses, he’ll be number two in Minnesota after the great RB Adrian Peterson. There will be many one-on-one match-ups that even Sage Rosenfels will be able to capitalize on.

While I expect Harvin to run his fair share of deep routes, that’ll mostly be Bernard Berrian’s job.

Instead, I think his real impact will come from short passes and slant patterns which will allow him to use his open field running ability—and blazing speed—to compile a lot of yards plus a few TDs.

He’ll also have additional opportunities to make things happen out of the backfield and on end-arounds. And don’t be surprised to see a pitch to Peterson who runs lateral and tosses it down field to a streaking Harvin, who got behind the defense after they were fooled into thinking it was a run.

The learning curve for rookie wide receivers is usually steep, outside of Randy Moss, who was a player that comes along once in a generation anyway, and for that reason, relying on one to impact your fantasy team is usually not wise.

But Harvin’s versatility should provide him ample opportunities from both the running back and receiver position, and that type of double threat makes him always worthy of consideration at your flex position.

Now we all know the reason he dropped in the NFL Draft—the failed drug test at the combine and concerns over his ability to stay out of trouble—and from all reports coming out from his high school and college days, that’s a big concern. But should he be able to remain focused on football and keep clean, he will be your top fantasy producer of all the round one receivers taken in the 2009 NFL Draft.

A draft really can’t be measured until two or three years down the road, so providing a grade the day after is pointless because it’s really based on only what we saw from players in college.

In 2002, the Lions received a high grade for taking Joey Harrington; that didn’t work out so well. On the other side of the coin, the Giants were given a C in Jerry Reese’s first draft in 2007; that turned out a little better than most experts predicted.

So here are 10 teams which improved themselves in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Philadelphia Eagles.

When you mix in the trades (LT Jason Peters, CB Ellis Hobbs) and the draft picks (WR Maclin, RB McCoy, etc), you’ve got to feel very good about the Eagles after these moves. Their offense is going to be much more dangerous and their defense, while there are still holes left to be filled -S Dawkins departure, should still be pretty good.

New England Patriots

The Patriots were the wheeler and dealers of this draft and grabbed a lot of quality (NT Brace, S Chung, etc) in the second and third rounds.

On top of that, they were able to solidify next year’s draft position by securing three second round picks in 2010. While the Pats don’t have a lot of holes, they are getting older; this infusion of youth should provide the foundation for the beginning of the next decade.

Chicago Bears

Regardless of what they did, landing Jay Cutler for this year’s No. 18 pick made the draft a winner. Cutler is heads and shoulders above the two prospects taken in this draft and only now entering his prime. They also grabbed a few other areas of need (DE Jarron Gilbert) and picked up a receiver (WR Joaquin Iglesias) for Cutler to throw to.

New York Giants

The Giants needed a few more guys on the outside and were able to land 6′2″ Nicks in round one and 6′6″ Barden in round three.

The latter will take some time to develop but the Giants love his upside—especially in the red zone. Other than that, it was solid all around and they picked up depth and the RB, OT, TE and LB position in round’s two through four.

New York Jets

The Jets made the boldest move by trading up to pick No. 5 for Mark Sanchez. GM Tannebaum is in love with QBs and before Saturday, the Jets were without one.

Sanchez already finds himself in a better situation than Stafford because the Jets possess a strong defense and running game, two crucial components when bringing along a young QB.

In round three, they moved up to grab RB Shonn Greene. With RB Thomas Jones running his mouth of late for a new contract, perhaps the Jets plan to move the vet and go with Greene and Washington.

If there was a downside to this draft for the Jets it’s the fact that they were left with only three picks. Champions are built through the draft so if they miss on the QB, this will put them way back.

Green Bay Packers

Landing B.J. Raji was a stroke of good fortune for a team that was consistently beaten off the line in 2008. Raji will fill a huge hole in the middle and allow those LBers (Barnett, Hawk and Mathews) to attack.

Speaking of Mathews, the Packers traded back into the first round to select him and this guy’s motor never stops. And oh yeah, he’s got pretty good bloodlines.

The rest of the draft was solid – something we’ve come to expect from GM Ted Thompson – and Green Bay could be ready to take a big step forward in the NFC Central in 2009.

San Francisco 49ers

Thanks to an unconscious Al Davis, and he must’ve been for taking Heyward-Bey at pick No. 7, WR Michael Crabtree fell to the 10th pick where the Niners wasted little time in scooping him up.

They then dealt their second and fourth for Carolina’s No. 1 in 2010, and used their third and 5th on a RB and QB. While they didn’t address a glaring need on the defensive line, they did add depth and quality to the offensive side of the football and provided they get decent QB play, should be interesting to watch on offense in 2009.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins loaded up at the defensive back position (see the receivers in AFC East other than the Jets to know why) and drafted WVU QB Pat White in round two. The Fins rejuvenated the Wild Cat formation in 2008 and you can bet they had this in mind when they grabbed the versatile White here.

Later on they addressed the receiver position and if there’s one thing we know about Parcells, it’s that he knows how to draft. He found good value throughout and the Dolphins have become a respectable franchise once again in only two short years.

Indianapolis Colts

The top choice of RB Donald Brown was surprising but they did need a complementary back to Addai who can’t seem to stay healthy. And Brown is a good player. Second round pick DT Fili Moala was a great pick for a major area of need, the interior line.

The Colts had a difficult time stopping the run in 2008 and Moala is a good start towards getting that corrected. Throughout the rest of the draft, they continued to build up that defense and addressed a few other areas on offense, receiver and offensive lineman. And once again, Polian did a nice job in the draft.

Atlanta Falcons

Grabbing Tony Gonzalez for a second rounder was the missing piece to the skill positions on offense, and DT Peria Jerry was just what the doctor ordered in round one. The Falcons were weak along the interior of the line and this move will shore it up.

Later on they grabbed a young safety who should make the transition from Lawyer Milloy and easy one.

Others who did well include the Bengals, Texans, and Ravens.

Early thoughts from day one of the NFL Draft.

Winners

Green Bay Packers

I think the Pack were very fortunate to see BJ Raji fall to them at pick No. 9. In a division that features the great Vikings’ Adrian Peterson, an up and comer in Bears’ Matt Forte, and another good looking young runner in Lions’ Kevin Smith, you’ve got to be stout in the middle. Raji is.

They then traded back into the first round to acquire USC LB Clay Mathews. This kid’s motor never stops and he should provide a solid pass rush from the outside.

New England Patriots

After realizing that this draft was deep in the middle—second, third, and fourth rounds—the Pats became trading partners with a number of teams and ended up with eight total picks in the second and third rounds.

They used all four second round picks wisely to solidify their defense and add some depth in the secondary. The Pats have a lot of guys 30 and older and realized they needed to get younger at a number of key positions.

When great teams get begin to age, it usually signifies the end of the run; this draft, if they hit on their picks, will probably be looked back upon as the bridge from the great Pats’ teams in 2000s to the team which remains near the top through the first half of the next decade.

New York Giants

The Giants came in with one glaring need and addressed it. Although he’s not as big as Burress – few are, Hakeem Nicks is built similar to Anquan Boldin and possesses excellent hands. He should be able to provide Manning with the big target he was missing after Burress was suspended at the end of last season.

In round two, they landed a pass rushing linebacker and added depth to their offensive line. When it comes to the draft, Reese and his staff are among the best (see 2007 and 2008’s draft). And day one is yet another example of why in New York they say “In Reese We Trust.”

The guy doesn’t miss.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles came away from day one feeling very pleased about their situation. And LT Jason Peters, who was acquired from Buffalo for pick No. 28, has to be included in those selections.

Thanks to a ridiculous reach by the Oakland Raiders at pick No. 7, WR Jeremy Maclin fell all the way to No. 19 where the Eagles smartly moved up two choices to grab him.

Maclin can fly, and is the type of big play receiver McNabb’s been lacking since he’s been in Philly, outside of a year with T.O. They scooped up Pitt RB LeSean McCoy in round two and he’ll be a good change of pace for Westbrook.

Losers

Oakland Raiders

They don’t even have to show me the rest of Oakland’s picks, their 1st round pick, No. 7 overall, was a reach that brings to mind Donte Whitner a few years back, when the Bills selected him at No. 8 although he projected to be there at the end of round one.

Now Darrius Heyward Bey is certainly not a bum, but Michael Crabtree was clearly the best receiver in this draft followed closely by Maclin. If you’re so desperate to take Bey, at least trade back, acquire extra picks, and still get him in the middle of the round.

At least that’s how a good team would do it. But then again, the Raiders are not—and as long as Davis calls the shots will not, be a good team.

Cleveland Browns

Just because you begin the day with five picks and end up with 10, doesn’t mean you’re doing things right. You still need to pick the right guys. It’s obvious that Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry was a guy they targeted at pick No. 5. And then when he came off the board one pick too soon, they decided to deal back. And then back again.

Until finally they selected a center at pick No. 21. In round two, they selected two wide receivers as they prepare for the eventual departure of Braylon Edwards after 2009.

With so many issues on defense, and so many good defensive players in the top two rounds, why only one choice—DE David Veikune from Hawaii? Maybe giving up 22 points per game in 2008 wasn’t that big of a deal after all. Just make sure you start anyone that play the Browns this year in your fantasy leagues.

Denver Broncos

Josh McDaniels has singlehandedly destroyed the Denver Broncos organization as we knew it. After signing three RBs in the off-season, he selected Knowshon Moreno at No. 12, and then dealt away next year’s 1st round pick later on to grab CB Alphonso Smith at pick No. 37.

Something tells me that first round pick will turn into a top 10 pick in 2010 for the Seahawks.

But back to McDaniels for a second; first the Cutler fiasco and now this? We haven’t seen this type of rapid deterioration from a franchise since the days of Rick Kotite.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: RB Knowshon Moreno

The Eagles already addressed their line with the acquisition of LT Jason Peters, now they look to fortify their backfield. And they’re extremely happy to find Moreno on the board here.

Westbrook is still one of the NFL’s top game breakers, but he’s aging, and he was banged up pretty good last year. So Moreno will give them some fresh legs and should make the Eagles even more dangerous out of the backfield.

22. Minnesota Vikings: WR Darrius Heyward Bey

The Vikings could look to beef up their offensive line with this pick, but none of the lineman still on the board seem worthy here. So look for them to address their receiver position by selecting the draft board climbing speedster Bey at No. 22. Many thought this might be the spot where Percy Harvin came off the board, but after a positive drug test, his stock is dropping like AIG’s in 2008.

23. New England Patriots: LB Clay Mathews

It appears that Belichick has been targeting Mathews for a while now as he looks to re-stock the line backing position, and Clay is a good one. The son of former Titans great, Bruce Mathews, Clay has a non-stop motor and knack for making the big play. He, along with last year’s 1st round pick, Jerod Mayo, should form a formidable tandem at the LB position for years to come.

24. Atlanta Falcons: TE Brandon Pettigrew

The Falcons will waste no time snatching up this talented TE out of Oklahoma State. As they look to add more toys for QB Matt Ryan to play with, look for Pettigrew to become a integral part of this offense and add another dimension to an offense which already features WR Roddy White and RB Michael Turner.

25. Miami Dolphins: WR Kenny Britt

The Dolphins turnaround last year was due mostly to impressive coaching, an opportunistic defense, and a short, safe passing game. Now they need to address the receiver position.

Britt’s how they will do it. The talented pass catcher will give the Fins another young receiver to play alongside WR Tedd Ginn Jr.

26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Vontae Davis

The Ravens threw a lot of money at CB Domonique Foxworth in free agency, but he’s not the long term solution. And after losing longtime standout CB Chris McAlister, look for the Ravens to snatch up Davis at this pick. Even with the defection of LB Bart Scott in free agency, this defense is still formidable; and revamping its secondary will keep it that way.

27. Indianapolis Colts: DT Evander Hood

The Colts have a few areas of need, but none more pressing then that of the interior of the defense. Running the football on Indianapolis was a relatively easy thing to do in 2008, and GM Polian will call Hood’s name here to anchor the middle of that defense.

28. Buffalo Bills: OT Eben Britton

With the loss of OT Jason Peters last week to the Eagles, the Bills will snatch Britton at pick No. 28 as they retool their offensive line. The Bills employ a power running game and you need a stout offensive line in order to play this style of football; Britton’s another big body that will enable them to do this.

He might develop into a mainstay along the line for years to come. Or until he gets good enough where owner Ralph Wilson will choose to deal him rather than pay him.

29. New York Giatns: LB James Laurinaitis

After dumping the malcontent known as Plaxico Burress earlier this month, many expect the Giants to go receiver with this pick. But the Giants never panic come draft time and have a few other areas they’re looking to strengthen.

Linebacker being one of them. Laurinaitis brings the type of intensity and work ethic Tom Coughlin loves to the table and will compete for a starting position in 2009.

30. Tennessee Titans: WR Brian Robiskie

While the Titans have never placed much emphasis on the receiver position come draft time, it’s quite apparent that they’re lacking an outside threat to complement their strong running game. Robiskie is a player who has seen his stock on the rise as we close in on draft day and would be a wise choice for last year’s No. 1 seed in the AFC.

31. Arizona Cardinals: RB Chris “Beanie” Wells

The Cardinals have a huge hole in their backfield and had all but abandoned the running game towards the end of last season before they decided to get Edge back involved. Wells provides a big body with speed who will fit in nicely in Arizona.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT William Beatty

The Steelers have always made its offensive line a top priority and built it though the draft. Early in 2008, the line was a mess, and Roethlisberger was constantly on his back.

After the midpoint in the season, it began to gel, and the Steelers rode its play all the way to a Super Bowl Championship. The top priority in Pittsburgh is keeping Big Ben in one piece and by selecting Beatty, they will have taken one step closer to doing so.

11. Buffalo Bills: DE Everette Brown. While some think the Bills will look to add an offensive lineman to replace OT Jason Peters with this pick, the Bills are in need of a solid pass rusher off the edge. And this is what Brown brings to the table.

A quality offensive lineman can be found later in the draft and we think the Bills could target one at pick No. 28 or in the second round.

12.  Denver Broncos: DE Tyson Jackson. HC Josh McDaniels now finds himself with even more holes to fill than when he was hired, but the most pressing area is still on defense.

It’s the main reason why Shanahan and Cutler are gone. Had Denver been able to stop anyone, they’d have been a playoff team in 2008 and their entire outlook would be different. So look for them to scoop up Jackson, who will provide pressure off the edge and be stout against the run.

13. Washington Redskins: OT Michael Oher. The Skins are looking to beef up their line and will be happy to find Oher on the board with their pick. They run the football first, pass it second.  And finding a complement to LT Chris Samuels will help them execute their offensive game plan more effectively. He’ll also be groomed as Samuels eventual replacement.

14. New Orleans Saints: CB Malcolm Jenkins. Although some mocks have Chris “Beanie” Wells going at this pick to replace the departed Deuce McAllister, the Saints need help on defense. It’s the reason why they’ve missed the postseason the last two seasons.

Jenkins provides excellent value at this point and will provide the Saints with a young, talented secondary. Last year’s second round pick, CB Tracy Porter, was playing extremely well before an injury put him out for the year.

15. Houston Texans: LB Brian Cushing. The Texans need to get better defensively if they are going to compete in the AFC South. Offensively, they’re strong; it’s the defense that needs an upgrade. After building up its defensive line over the past few years, it’s time to solidify the linebacker position. Cushing is a nice fit and will make his presence felt early on.

16. San Diego Chargers: LB Ray Maualuga. The Chargers still have a deep and talented roster but are a bit thin at the line backing position. Maualuga is a big-time talent and will provide a boost to a unit that was banged up last year after Shawne Merriman was placed on IR. This move should turn a weakness into a strength.

17. New York Jets: QB Josh Freeman. The Jets are apparently in love with Freeman’s athleticism and he is set to become this year’s Joe Flacco—the guy who rises out of nowhere to be a first round pick. And with the QBs currently on the roster can you blame them?

New York’s not the best place to throw a kid “into the fire,” but if they bring him along slowly and let him adapt to the speed of the game, this might be a pick that pays huge dividends in 2010 and beyond.

18. Denver Broncos: LB Robert Ayers. The Broncos could go running back at this pick, but defense should be the theme in round one. Ayers provides a big body at the LB position and will help boost a unit that performed poorly in 2008.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DT Peria Jerry. The Bucs’ defense is still the team’s backbone, but they’re lacking a big body in the middle of the defensive line. Jerry would solve this problem.

And after watching the Panthers’ impressive RB tandem tear this unit apart last December, stopping the run is of utmost importance.

20. Detroit Lions: DE Aaron Maybin. After taking Stafford at No. 1, look for the defensive minded Schwartz to turn to his roots: defense. And landing Maybin with the 20th selection would be a steal for the Lions.

It’s virtually impossible to be successful in today’s NFL without having pass rushers who can get to the QB, and Schwartz addresses a problem area here at pick No. 20.

With the NFL Draft less than four days away, it’s time to start with Pro Football 101’s mock draft. Today we’ll go through the top 10.

1. Detroit Lions: QB Matt Stafford

Although we’re not as sold on Stafford as others—see Mel Kiper of ESPN—the Lions have all but tipped their hand that this is the way they’re going to go. And sitting at No. 1, coming off an 0-16 season, their expectations are quite reasonable for 2009.

With the ability to bring Stafford along slowly, this will help to avoid another Joey Harrington debacle, and WR Calvin Johnson can aid anyone’s development. Ask Dan Orlovsky.

2. St. Louis Rams: LT Jason Smith

It’s Steve Spagnuolo’s first draft, so you can pretty much expect him to focus on the defense throughout the draft. But not at the No. 2 pick. Releasing longtime standout Orlando Pace in the off-season left a huge void along the left side of the line, and Smith could be an absolute fixture at the LT position for the next decade.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: LB Aaron Curry

Curry’s been predicted here ever since the mock drafts began back in February, and that’s exactly where his name will be called when the Chiefs are on the clock this Saturday.

Although a pass-rushing DE is a need for Kansas City (they only managed 10 sacks in 2008), Curry provides too much value at No. 3 and could have a very big impact if Scott Pioli’s coaches employ their linebackers as they did when he was with the Patriots.

4. Seattle Seahawks: QB Mark Sanchez

The rumors of the Seahawks’ interest in Sanchez could just be that. Rumors. But if there’s truth to what’s being thrown around, then it does make sense. Matt Hasselbeck’s 33 and coming off an injury-ravaged year, and Seattle does needs to start thinking about his replacement.

With at least another solid year or two left in Hasselbeck, this could be the perfect opportunity to allow Sanchez to sit until 2010, when experts predicted that he would’ve battled it out for the top pick in that draft with Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford.

5. Cleveland Browns: DE/LB Brian Orakpo

As tempting as it might be to grab QB Mark Sanchez if he’s still on the board with this pick, and this has been rumored all week, it’d probably take at least three years to begin seeing the desired results.

Unfortunately for Eric Mangini, after purging his roster of some of its more established talent via trade—and WR Donte’ Stallworth’s future is up in the air after he killed someone in Miami—three years is too long to wait.

Look for the Browns to target the defense at five; Orakpo’s relentless motor will help bring a pass rush back to Cleveland.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: LT Eugene Monroe

The Bengals are a team full of holes, but one area of particular importance is on the offensive line, where they lost Stacey Andrews in free agency.

With QB Carson Palmer sustaining a few major injuries over the past few seasons, it’s important for this team to do what they can to keep their franchise QB’s jersey clean. Monroe is the pick.

7. Oakland Raiders: WR Jeremy Maclin

While WR Michael Crabtree is the more polished receiver, Al Davis is in love with speed. And with some of his recent personnel decisions, you’d think that he’s on it.

Maclin provides the big play ability that the Raiders were sorely missing after the WR Javon Walker debacle in 2008. He will be the deep threat to haul in JaMarcus Russell’s 60-yard bombs.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: OT Andre Smith

Rumors have the Jaguars desperately trying to trade out of this pick, but in the event they can’t, look for them to solidify their line after last year’s implosion to this unit.

The main reason why the Jaguars regressed in 2008 was because three-fifths of the line went out early, so they were unable to run the football and pass protect adequately. Smith should be able to help with that.

9. Green Bay Packers: DT B.J. Raji

The Packers got greedy in 2008 and dealt young DT Corey Williams to the Browns for a second rounder. The move backfired. They were unable to provide the inside pressure that Williams helped provide the previous year, and the result was a 5-11 season just one year after going 13-3 and advancing within one game of the Super Bowl.

Look for the Pack to land Raji at No. 9 and strengthen the interior of its defense.

10. San Francisco 49ers: WR Michael Crabtree

The ‘Niners couldn’t ask for better luck than to find Crabtree sitting on the board at this pick. The top-rated receiver in the draft—and player by some—he’d give the ‘Niners the offensive explosiveness they’ve been lacking and allow them to stretch the field once again.

While he’s not as fast as the top speed receivers in this draft, he does have the best hands. And who knows, perhaps he can teach former first-round blocking TE Vernon Davis how to catch the ball, which would make the ‘Niners a force to be reckoned with in the NFC West.

The Philadelphia Eagles dealt their No. 28 pick last week to Buffalo for disgruntled LT Jason Peters. The move is an extremely good one in my opinion for the Eagles and falls right in line with their philosophy of beefing up the front to allow them to run the Reid’s offense.

And with the likes of DE Justin Tuck, DE Osi Umenyiora, DE/LB DeMarcus Ware and DT Albert Haynesworth in the NFC East, you can’t be weak up front.

Reid understands this and that’s why he went out and signed OT Stacey Andrews early in free agency and now dealt for Jason Peters. Although rumors were swirling last week that they might target WR Anquan Boldin with one of their first round picks, solidifying the line makes a lot more sense.

For Buffalo Bills fans, it has to be very demoralizing to see Peters go. The franchise finds a diamond in the rough – an un-drafted free agent that they develop into a big-time LT, and then because Ralph Wilson is too cheap to open his pocket book,  he gets dealt in his prime.

How can you expect to build a winner if every time a homegrown player becomes a stud, you’re forced to deal him because the money is too great? Not by giving $6.5M to pick up 35 year-old T.O. They’d have been much wiser to shift that money towards Peters and keep the left side of the line intact for the next five years. Quality left tackles are much more difficult to come by in football than wide receivers.

The Giants look to be busy all week and right on up to the NFL draft with 10 picks and five in the top 100. With very few holes to fill and an extremely talented roster, New York’s only got room for maybe five of these picks. So don’t be surprised if a few are packaged together to either land WR Braylon Edwards from Cleveland, or move up in the draft to land one of the top three receivers: Jeremy Maclin, Michael Crabtree or Darius Heyward-Bey.

On the other end of a few potential deals, look for the Browns to stockpile on draft choices by moving some veterans who might not fit in with Mangini’s program. A year after trading away all its day one draft choices:  2008’s 1st round pick in ‘07 for Quinn, its 2nd for DT Corey Williams and its 3rd for DT Shaun Rodgers, this year should be the opposite.

If the rumored deals go through, Cleveland should receive another 1st, 3rd and 5th for Bralyon and a 2nd or 3rd for Quinn. That’ll give them a lot of choices in the top 100 which they’ll use to rebuild the franchise from the ground up once again.

And year 10 of rebuilding continues…