NFL Picks: Super Bowl XLIII

30 01 2009

It’s amazing to think that after this weekend we’ll put our NFL game picks to rest until the 2009 season kicks off. It was a very good first year for us, and after picking both games in the conference championships, we’ll look to cap it off with a winner in the Super Bowl.

Best Bets

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals (WSEX). The Cardinals magical post season run has seen them cover all three point spreads, all three being the underdog. So no one – including Vegas – has given them any respect. It’ll be the same this weekend when they line up against the Steelers.

Unfortunately for Arizona, all good things come to an end, and so it will be with their streak of both winning, and covering the spread as the underdog.

The only way the Cardinals can win—or keep this game within seven points—is by passing the ball early and jumping to the lead. Their entire strategy/game plan is based on this scenario taking place.

The Steelers were the best in the NFL vs the pass allowing a league leading low 156 yards per game. So something’s got to give here, and we’re not going to bet that it’s Pittsburgh’s defense.

Look for the game to be close in the first half; both teams usually come out fired up and the Steelers offense isn’t nearly as dominant as is its defense.

But in the second half, once the initial energy of playing in the Super Bowl has worn off, look for the Steelers defense, led by DE/LB Harrison and S Polamlu, to take over and pressure Warner into sacks and a few turnovers.

And on offense, look for Roethlisberger to lead long, methodical drives in the third and fourth quarters, which feature a  mixture of running and short passing  plays. The result of this will be twofold: Pittsburgh will be able to milk the clock and at the same time wear down the Cardinals defense en route to the 10-point victory.



Super Bowl XLIII: Steelers vs. Cardinals

29 01 2009

When the 14-4 Pittsburgh Steelers take the field in Tampa vs. the 12-7 Arizona Cardinals, history will be on the line. The Steelers will have a chance to be the NFL’s first six-time Super Bowl Champion.

And standing in their way is a team that no one five weeks ago thought would escape the first round of the playoffs. But escape they have and then some. After outlasting the Falcons in a 30-24 win over Atlanta in the Wild Card Game, they crushed the Panthers in Charlotte and held off the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers took care of business the old fashioned way. After finishing with the No. 2 seed in the AFC, they were afforded a bye over Wild Card Weekend. They then went onto beat up the Chargers in the divisional round and the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game to advance.

There are many story lines surrounding this football game—will Kurt Warner win another championship; can anyone stop WR Larry Fitzgerald, who has already surpassed WR Jerry Rice’s all-time receiving mark for a single post season; can Roethlisberger atone for his dismal showing in Super Bowl XL; will Whisenhunt’s familiarity with Roethlisberger provide an edge; will Pittsburgh win its sixth, and so on…

Here’s how we see the Super Bowl playing out.

When the Cardinals have the ball, they must jump out to an early lead. Falling behind to the Steelers will be a losing proposition. Pittsburgh’s doesn’t boast the NFL’s No. 1 defense for  just putting on the uniform; they get after you, led be DE/LB James Harrison and Co.

So look for Arizona to come out utilizing the short to medium range passing game in order to find a rhythm. And they’ll do this by having Warner use three-to-five step drops and the shotgun formation early on. It’s the best way to neutralize Pittbsburgh’s blitz and pressure packages.

And if they begin to find success in the short (passing) game to Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston, it will open up a few opportunities to take shots down the field – either on play action or through trickery as they did on the long first half TD vs. the Eagles. And with 6′3″ Larry Fitzgerald on the outside, that’s nearly always a  favorable match-up for the Cardinals. Fitzgerald has shown an uncanny ability to control his body as he jumps into the air to pull the ball down.

But they better strike when the iron is hot because the Steelers use their safeties excellently; S Ryan Clark is more attuned at providing help on the deep ball while S Polamalu mans everything that’s short to mid range.

And by finding a rhythm through the air, it’ll allow them to mix in RB Edgerrin James, and run the football just enough to keep them from being one dimensional.

When the Steelers have the football, we see them following a similar blue print: passing to set-up the run. It’s not imperative for the Steelers to jump out to the lead because they have the balance on offense to come back , and their top rated defense will always keep them in the game, but they want to find a rhythm in the passing game early so they can then pound the rock late in the game.

So look for Roethlisberger to focus on WRs Ward and Holmes on the outside, Miller on the short passes in the middle and RB’s Parker and Moore on screen passes. And the reason this formula will have success is because Arizona always brings up S Adrian Wilson in the early going to stop the run.

The Cardinals simply don’t have the beef/or size in their front seven to challenge teams straight up so they need to employ different packages that utilize safeties and sometimes corners to help out against the run.  And they do this so they can put teams in predictable third and long passing situations which their opportunistic defense can take advantage of.

So it’ll be important for Pittsburgh to take some shots down the field on 1st and 2nd down to WR Washington because that’ll be their best opportunity to catch the Cardinals when they’re vulnerable to the big play.

Pittsburgh’s ability to have success moving the ball early on will set-up their strategy for the rest of the game. If they’re sitting with a lead by the time the 3rd quarter rolls around, look for a heavy dose of Parker and Moore as the Steelers will look to grind out the clock and wear down the Cardinals defense.

Arizona can not match Pittsburgh’s physicality and it will show in the third and fourth quarters. That’s when the more physical team takes over a game—both mentally as well as physically.

When the clock hits 0:00 in Super Bowl XLIII and the 2008 season officially comes to an end, look for the Steelers to pull off the 24-14 or 27-17 victory.

There are just too many scenarios that must go wrong for the Cardinals to have their Cinderella season end on a high note. And hoping to catch the Steelers top ranked defense on a bad day is like trying to time the bottom of the stock market – extremely unlikely.

So the Steelers will move to 15-4 and give Mike Tomlin his first Super Bowl win in only his second year as head coach, while the Cardinals, the team from nowhere, have had a great season which far exceeded everyone’s—including their own—expectations. And now they can firmly go back to being a second or third place team in the NFC West in 2009.



Keys For the Pittsburgh Steelers To Win the Super Bowl

27 01 2009

The Steelers come into the Super Bowl as the seven-point favorite, and rightfully so.

They led the NFL in defense in 2008 and have an offense that’s capable of making some noise as well.

For Pittsburgh to win on Sunday, they’ll need to do one thing aside from just showing up—limit Ben Roethlisberger’s dumb mistakes and ill-advised turnovers. If they can do (or limit) that, all they’ll need to do is follow the formula they’ve used all year and the rest will take care of itself.

Offensively, the Steelers must attack through the air in the beginning. The Cardinals will keep S Adrian Wilson close to the box and focus on keeping RB Willie Parker under wraps. This should allow Roethlisberger one-on-one opportunities to strike to his outside targets.

If this begins to work, the Steelers can then begin to feed Parker and Moore the football because Arizona will be forced to keep their safeties back in coverage.

Defensively, there won’t be any new wrinkles added by DC LeBeau at this point. There’s only one formula to use when facing Kurt Warner and his talented offense—pressure. The Eagles found out the effectiveness of this style of defense too late; had they played the first half as they had played from about midway through the third quarter until the final back-breaking drive, they’d be in Tampa.

So look for Pittsburgh to come after Warner and make his life miserable. RB Edgerrin James will be a non-factor on Sunday, so all they will need to focus on is disrupting Warner’s rhythm and keeping guys in his face.

And this should lead to a few turnovers.

This scenario is the most likely to play out, and this is why Pro Football 101 has the Steelers winning Super Bowl 43. By how much? Check back on Thursday for our in-depth analysis of the Super Bowl and on Friday for our Super Bowl best bets edition.



Keys For the Arizona Cardinals To Win the Super Bowl

26 01 2009

Pray. That’s the proper place to start.

No, the 2008 Steelers are not in the same class as the 2007 New England Patriots—they can be beat, but the Cardinals have one formula for success and if that doesn’t work, the house of cards comes down. No pun intended.

For Arizona to win on Sunday, they will need to come out firing the football; the ground game will not work.

But the Steelers have only been beaten through the air one time this year: a 24-20 loss to the Colts. And even then, there was some luck involved. Peyton Manning’s first TD pass to Reggie Wayne, for 65 yards, was deflected off the CBs hand right into Wayne’s before he took it the rest of the way for the score.

So while it won’t be easy, it’s the only way.

Warner will have to execute the short passing game to perfection because the Steelers will not allow him to sit back there and pick apart its secondary. They’ve seen plenty of film from the Eagles game to know that you’ve got to break the timing between Warner and his receivers (Fitzgerald and Boldin).

And by utilizing this passing attack successfully, it will allow Arizona to implement the running game once they get the lead.

Defensively, the Cardinals won’t have to worry about getting run over by Pittsburgh because they don’t employ the overwhelming running game that we all became accustomed to throughout the Cowher years.

And if Arizona has a lead, they’ll be at their best; playing aggressive defense—exotic blitz packages and the safety in the box (to stop the run and bring the extra man)—and allowing their secondary to remain disciplined in their coverage.

Now again, this scenario isn’t likely. It worked beautifully against the Panthers and during the 1st half of the Eagles game.

It will have to work once again to provide them their best shot to take home the Lombardi Trophy.

Check back tomorrow for Pro Football 101’s keys to a Steelers victory.



Friday’s Q&A with Pro Football 101

23 01 2009

We’re now just a week and two days away from the big game, everyone excited? I didn’t think so. If not for Pittsburgh and it’s huge following, I’d lay money down that this would be the lowest rated Super Bowl ever. Sorry, the Whisenhunt/Roethlisberger/Steelers connection just doesn’t matter outside of Pittsburgh and Bill Cowher’s home.

Onto a few questions that we’ve received this week.

Derek: Rex Ryan announced at his press conference that the New York Jets would be celebrating a Super Bowl victory with President Barack Obama at the White House. What’s your thoughts on this statement?

pf101: Well, a bold prediction like that is sure to get you back page material on the NY Daily News and NY Post, but unless you win (and back it up), it won’t keep you there. But I’m not surprised by it; his father, Buddy Ryan, announced to the NFL world at his Arizona Cardinals press conference in ‘94 that “you’ve got a winner in town.”

Of course, two years and 20 losses later, he was shown the door. So the over confidence/ borderline arrogance doesn’t surprise me one bit in this family. Read the rest of this entry »



Would Ray Lewis Solve The Cowboys Chemistry Issues?

21 01 2009

A rumor came out the other day that the Dallas Cowboys secretly covet LB Ray Lewis and would be willing to lock him up to a three year, $28M-$30M deal, with $25M of it being guaranteed. According to team owner Jerry Jones, Lewis would be a strong presence in the locker room which would help re-build team chemistry.

First off, let’s hope Lewis thinks with his head (and not his wallet).

Lewis, a sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famer, should remain a Raven until the day he retires.

I don’t think Baltimore Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome would commit that kind of money to a 35-year old player.  But I do suggest Newsome would offer some key incentives to lure Lewis to stay.

Secondly, the only way you’ll have team chemistry once again in Dallas is through addition by subtraction—releasing the cancer known as Terrell Owens.

The pairing of Lewis and Owens nearly happened before. In 2004, the Niners traded the troubled receiver to the Baltimore Ravens, but the deal was vetoed after T.O. cried to the NFL league office.

And why was there anything to cry over?

Because Owens’ agent somehow missed the deadline to fill out the free agency papers, so he was technically still under contract with San Francisco. So the Baltimore deal was ripped up and he got his wish to go to Philadelphia.

Well that love affair lasted one season until he completely imploded, created a personal rift with McNabb, and brought the entire ‘05 Eagles’ team down with his selfish antics.

So he went to Dallas in ‘06.

He fit right in with Jerry Jones’ belief that the Cowboys can rehabilitate anyone.

And aside from a few personality conflicts between Owens and Parcells – and I’m sure the Tuna was none too happy about the acquisition, once Romo took over after week 7 of the 2006 season, he was a happy camper.

And that transferred over until this year when he took his me-first attitude to a new level. In the past, whenever the Cowboys lost, he always used the “when the ball is thrown to me, good things happen” argument.

And against the likes of San Francisco, the team they played directly after he made those comments again, he put up over 200 yards and people thought he was right.

But shortly after the week 14 Steelers loss, a new kind of complaining began; he called out Romo and said that he looks to Witten too often. Perhaps, he hasn’t taken note of how difficult it is for defenses to match-up against the All-Pro TE.

And after the Cowboys were annihilated by the Eagles, 44-6, in week 17, T.O. even took some shots at offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.

So if Jones thinks that bringing in Lewis without removing Owens would solve team chemistry, he might need to have his head checked out. No one has ever been able to control Owens.

That’s why T.O., easily one of the top five receivers to ever play in the NFL, has been shipped out of two cities already and is close to getting the pink slip in the third.

Lewis would certainly be an asset to an already stout Dallas’ D, but even the most talented team in the league can’t overcome a personality like Owens. I believe that was proven this year by none other than Dallas.

Sure there were other issues affecting the team (Romo’s injury), but they still had a shot for the playoffs when he (Romo) returned. And both the Eagles and Cardinals proved that all you need to do is get in.

So stick in Baltimore, Ray.

Jones is desperate to sell tickets and luxury boxes for the new stadium this year and wants his fans to believe that this is a Super Bowl team, but until T.O. is shipped to the Canadian Football League, there will be no Super Bowl in Big D.

There will only be internal bickering and fighting that’s bad for football, but great for ratings on HBO’s award winning “Hard Knocks” series.



Early Super Bowl Line

20 01 2009

The early line in the Super Bowl is the Steelers (-120) at 6 1/2 point favorites. So you’ve got to put $120 down to win $100; or, in plainer terms, the money is being placed on Pittsburgh.

Does Arizona have a chance? Not likely. In fact, the line could be too low (for the Steelers). If there’s been one constant the entire season for Pittsburgh it’s been it’s defense. It ended up ranked #1 in the NFL and aside from their game vs. the Titans, were dominant against virtually every team they went against.

The offense, not so much; but they do just enough to eek out victories as evidenced by Troy Palumalu’s pick six last Sunday which gave the Steelers the win and the cover (of the spread). The Cardinals best shot to win this football game will be to stop the passing game. The Steelers running game is set up by the passing game, so by stopping Roethlisberger, you can contain Pittsburgh. Read the rest of this entry »



AFC Championship Game Observations

19 01 2009

The Ravens and Steelers had played two stirring matchups this season—both coming down to the wire—but the third one failed to live up to the hype.

Although, at one point the scoreboard read 16-14 Pittsburgh, and the Ravens had the football back with five minutes to play, the contest wasn’t as the close as the point total indicated.

From the get go, Pittsburgh was in charge. Its defense made Joe Flacco look like the rookie that he was, and Baltimore was unable to muster anything on offense.

Conversely, the Steelers were able to move the football well through the air (Baltimore was playing with back-up CBs), and after Roethlisberger scrambled away from pressure, threw across the field to WR Santonio Homes, who then weaved his way through this Ravens’ defense for the 65 yard TD reception, the score was 13-0. It should’ve been worse.

The refs blew an earlier call on an apparent 30 yard TD for Holmes when they ruled he never fully had control of the ball before crossing the goal line. To us, it appeared that he caught the football, was reaching for the goal line, and when he hit the ground, the ball came loose. So instead they had to settle for the FG.

After that, the Ravens were able to get back into it after a 45-yard punt return put Baltimore at the 17. Three plays later and the score was 13-7.

It would stay that way into the half, but on the stat sheet, the Steelers had thoroughly dominated the game up until this point.

Late in the third quarter, the Steelers had a perfect opportunity to put the nail in the coffin and the Ravens out of their misery. Rookie wideout Limas Sweed got a free release down the left sidelines and saw a pin point deep pass go right through his hands. So Pittsburgh had to settle for three to put them up 16-7.

Just like the week before, the Ravens were being completely outplayed on the field but were still in the game. And this one would be no different.

Midway through the fourth, Flacco orchestrated a six-play drive, which was aided by a pass interference call in the end zone, and after RB Willis McGahee’s one-yard TD, the game was 16-14.

And after a three and out, Baltimore took a short punt and moved it to their 40. Great field position for a potential GW drive. But a boneheaded play by their special teams (unnecessary roughness call on a late hit out of bounds) pushed the ball back to the 13.

And on third down, Flacco, under a great deal of pressure, looked right and fired to his favorite target WR Derrick Mason, but S Troy Polamalu was there to pick it off and he returned it all the way to the house.

Game over.

So with the 23-14 win, the Steelers now move on to go for their sixth Super Bowl title while the Ravens, just 5-11 a year ago, overachieved on many levels and have to feel good about all that they accomplished in coach Harbaugh’s first year.



NFC Championship Game Observations

18 01 2009

Remember that 48-20 beating that the Eagles gave the Cardinals on Thanksgiving? After today, that seems like it happened eons ago.

The Arizona Cardinals came out scorching in the desert on this day, while the Eagles came out as they had in four of their previous five NFC Championship games, ice cold.

The first drive of the game kind of gave you the sense that it would be the WR Larry Fitzgerald show on this day. Warner targeted his favorite receiver for three catches and then hit him on a crossing pattern in the red zone which Fitzgerald was able to take across the goal line.

Philadelphia thought it could come out and rush only their front four and still get the necessary pressure on Warner, but after the first drive, they knew that plan wasn’t going to get it done. The Cardinals were able to keep the Eagles defense off-balance, something not easy to do against the third-ranked defense in the NFL, with a mixture of runs and high percentage pass plays.

And when they got it back after the Eagles had hit a FG, they included a little trickery to their offensive arsenal. On first down, Warner pitched the ball to his RB Edgerrin James, who in turn pitched it back to him. He looked down the field and saw Fitzgerald in single coverage against the Eagles’ third CB. After that, it was a matter of launching it down the field and letting his superstar receiver take over. 14-6.

For the rest of the half, the Eagles didn’t do much else on offense or defense, and found themselves in an 18-point hole.

But in the second half, the story would be very different. Sensing the desperation of their situation, the Eagles’ coaching staff made the necessary adjustments and the defense returned to dominant form. They limited Warner and Co. to just 12 plays on three three and outs.

McNabb also found his stride.

In a stretch which began with about six minutes left in the third quarter, Donovan torched the Cards for three TDs, hitting TE Brent Celek for two TDs and rookie WR DeSean Jackson for one on a 60+ yard bomb.

And with that score, the Eagles had taken a 25-24 lead with ten minutes to play and had all of the momentum.

But they couldn’t keep it up. Warner, who had been ice cold in the second half, orchestrated a 14 play, 72 yard drive that consumed over seven minutes of the clock. And on a crucial 3rd-and-goal from the 10, Arizona called a screen pass – the perfect play call – and RB Tim Hightower executed it to perfection and took it in for the go ahead TD. After the two point conversion, it was 32-25 with just under three minutes left to play.

Now is when legends are made. The one blemish on Donovan McNabb’s career to date has been his inability to perform in big games and clutch situations. Coming into this football game, he was batting .250 in NFC Championship Games and lost his only Super Bowl. Here was an opportunity to change that legacy.

Unfortunately for McNabb, it was not to be. He was erratic on the entire final drive – constantly throwing high or behind his targets, and after an incomplete out pattern to WR Kevin Curtis on 4th down, which could’ve been called for pass interference, he saw another golden opportunity to solidify his legacy and get his team to a Super Bowl slip right through his fingers.

Game over.

So the Cardinals, a team that most will call this year’s New York Giants, (although that comparison would be inaccurate because they played two home games in the playoffs,so the 2006 Colts would be a better comparison), advance to play in the Super Bowl while the Eagles, who had a great year in their own right, will kick themselves over this one because everything was set up for them to advance to the Super Bowl.



NFL Picks: Conference Championships

16 01 2009

We’re down to the final weekend of football before the Super Bowl. And so far, it’s been a solid year for Pro Football 101. We’ll look to continue our success in the NFC and AFC Championship Games.

Best Bets

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) vs. the Baltimore Ravens. Last week, the Ravens were our best bet and pulled out the 13-10 victory. This week, we like their opponent. In that game on Saturday, the Titans had their way with this Ravens squad but couldn’t overcome two key fumbles by Crumpler and White and the injury to rookie Chris Johnson’s ankle. Read the rest of this entry »





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