Pro Football 101

In our Week 9 Picks, we were 1-2 vs. the spread: The Giants, favored by 9, destroyed the Cowboys and won going away by 21. For our money line choice, Green Bay (+200) took Tennessee to the limit but lost in OT 19-16. Had you taken them at +5, you’d have more money in your pocket for this week. Here’s who we at Pro Football 101 like for Week 10 of the NFL season.

Best Bet:

1. New Orleans Saints (+1.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons. The Saints come into this game off a 37-32 victory over the Chargers and are well rested after the bye. The Falcons are coming off a 24-0 shellacking of the hapless Oakland Raiders. We like the Saints to pull off the mini-upset because Brees is playing lights out these days and now has two of his favorite targets back in the lineup: Shockey and Colston. We just don’t feel that Atlanta will be able to keep pace with the Saints’ scoring and that’s why New Orleans is our best bet of the week.

Next in Line:

2. Green Bay Packers (+2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings. This game is usually a hard fought contest between division rivals and we see that taking place once again this Sunday. Although the Vikings have won a few close games of late – to pull its record to 4-4 – they have not done so in impressive fashion: a 2-point victory over the winless Lions and a TD over the Schaub-less Texans. Look for Green Bay to come out in passing mode on Sunday and take advantage of the mismatches its receivers present for the Vikings’ secondary. While Minnesota will once again look to feature AP (Adrian Peterson), we don’t think Frerotte will do enough through the air and we see GB pulling out the W.

3. Arizona Cardinals (-9.5) vs. the San Francisco 49ers. The Cardinals will look to make a statement this Monday Night and inch closer to an NFC West Division crown. The Niners are coming off an embarrassing loss in which Mike Singletary, the team’s interim coach, pulled his pants down at half time to illustrate for his team what the opponent was doing to them. Offensively, look for Warner and his receivers to put on an aerial show while on defense, for the Cards to take away RB Frank Gore and the Niners’ running game and force QB Shaun Hill into mistakes and turnovers. Easy victory.

4. New York Giants (+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: See money line at the bottom.

Others we like:

Carolina Panthers (-9.5) vs. Oakland Raiders. The Raiders only managed 77-yards last week. Hard to score points with outputs that feeble.

San Diego Chargers (-15.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs. We think the change at defensive coordinator will have a profound effect on the Chargers Defensive’ unit. And while the offense is piling up points, the defense will be keeping the Chiefs out of the end zone.

Miami Dolphins (-8.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks. If the Seahawks last two east coast trips are any indication (34-10 loss to Buffalo and 44-6 loss to NYG), look for Miami, who is playing well right now, to win this one by double digits.

Money Line:

New York Giants (+130) vs. Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants come into this game sitting atop the NFC East with a 7-1 record and having won 12 of its last 13 games on the road. The Eagles come in after two straight victories – over the Falcons and Seahawks – and have improved its record to 5-3. We think the game will be close, but in the end, we like New York’s physical and mental toughness to be the deciding factor. The Giants’ defense is playing lights out lately, and one thing we know for certain is that if the game is close in the 4th quarter, Eli Manning will outperform Donovan McNabb every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Look for the Giants to move to 8-1 and widen its lead in the NFC East.

Must Starts:

1. Carolina Panthers vs. Oakland Raiders. After last week’s 77-yard output by the Oakland Raiders’ offense can there even be a discussion as to who is the top pick this week? Look for the Panthers to get a commanding lead early and then get after QB JaMarcus Russell. We see Carolina keeping Oakland to under 10 points and racking up a few sacks and turnovers in the process. Top Defensive play.

2. Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears. If Orton were playing, Tennessee wouldn’t be so high on our list, but with Grossman expected to line up behind center, the Titans are a very attractive pick this week. With the return of a healthy DE Vanden Bosch, we like Tennessee to get back to its pressure ways and force Rex Grossman, who is no stranger to mistakes, into a few turnovers and sacks. A very strong fantasy start.

3. Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks. It appears that QB Seneca Wallace will get the call again in this one and lead the Seahawks when they head into Miami. Good teams typically have trouble making the cross-country trip and playing at the early 1 pm start time; bad teams have little chance. Both of Seattle’s trips to the East Coast this season (Buffalo and New York) have ended in 34-10 and 44-6 losses respectively, and this week, against the surprising Dolphins, we see another lopsided outcome. Look for Miami’s front 7 – Joey Porter in particular – to get after QB Wallace and its secondary to intercept a few errant throws.

4. San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Yes, I know, this is a surprising must start. Especially after the Chargers defense gave up 37 just two weeks ago to New Orleans. But since that time, San Diego has removed DC Ted Cottrell and inserted Ron Rivera in his place. Look for San Diego to jump to a big lead early vs. Kansas City and then for the Chargers to employ a new aggressive defensive package which results in multiple sacks and turnovers. This is the week they finally look like the top 3 defensive unit people thought they were getting when they drafted them.

Sleepers:

1. Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers. The 5-3 Cardinals have taken a commanding lead in the NFC West and want to inch one step closer to wrapping up the division with a victory over their division rival. Look for the Cards to have a strong game offensively Monday Night and this will put pressure on San Francisco to keep up; this is usually when mistakes occur. And with QB Shaun Hill making his 1st start of the year, we like Arizona to sack him multiple times and pick off a few passes.

2. New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles. It’s not often that you start a defense vs. a 5-3 team on their home field, but after the way the Giants unit has performed the past three weeks, it’s impossible not to. Also, since DC Steve Spagnuola spent over eight seasons with the Eagles learning under DC Jim Johnson, we think he’ll have some inside knowledge on how to game plan vs. his former team and then unleash DE’s Tuck, Kiwanuka and Co. after McNabb. One thing we know about McNabb is he make mistakes when the pressure rises. Look for that to happen on Sunday.