Pro Football 101

Must Starts:

1. Kurt Warner vs. San Francisco. Most people around the NFL know how good Warner and this offense is, but this Monday, when the 49ers come to town, the entire country will find out on a national stage. Warner has been lighting it up through the air of late and we see that trend continuing this week back in the desert. While the Niners are pretty strong against the run, they have trouble vs. the pass, and with Boldin and Fitzgerald lining up on the outside against Clements and Harris, look for Arizona to exploit these mismatches all night long. Warner will eclipse the 300-yard mark for the third consecutive game and throw for at least two TDs.

2. Drew Brees vs. Atlanta. The Falcons have improved greatly on defense in 2008 – to everyone’s surprise – but this week they face Drew Brees and he pretty much has a field day against any opponent. Playing inside the dome, we see the Saints taking shots down the field to open up the running game, and with Shockey back healthy, along with Colston, look for Brees to enjoy a lot of success through the air. It might not be one of those ridiculous 300-yard plus games we’ve all become accustomed to, but 250 with a few scores is a definite possibility.

3. Aaron Rodgers vs. Minnesota. While the Vikings employ a very strong defense vs. the run, there are many holes in its pass defense. In their win over Houston last Sunday, they allowed over 300 passing yards and 2 TDs to the Matt Schaub/Sage Rosenfels combo. In this football game, we don’t see much from Ryan Grant, so look for Greg Jennings and Donald Driver to be centerpieces of the Packers’ game plan and for Rodgers to locate them frequently. 250 yards and 2 TDs.

4. Phillip Rivers vs. Kansas City. San Diego is looking to get back on track after two consecutive losses to the Bills and Saints. And after having two weeks to mull over its 3-5 record, look for the Chargers to feast on the lowly Chiefs at the Q (Qualcomm Stadium) and for Rivers to have a lot of success through the air. We think he’ll have to get the majority of his yards in the 1st half though because once this team gets the lead – and we think the Chargers will blow out KC – it’ll be a lot of Tomlinson running left and right. All in all, we see Rivers surpassing the 200-yard mark and tossing a few TDs.

Sleepers:

1. Marc Bulger vs. New York Jets. Prior to last Sunday, the Jets were very adept at giving up big yardage through the air. In fact, just two weeks ago, they made Chiefs back-up QB Tyler Thigpen look like an All-Pro. While it hasn’t exactly been all sunshine for Bulger these days, he has seen his game improve with the addition of rookie wide out Donnie Avery, and provided the weather conditions are decent this Sunday, we think Bulger can attack this Jets’ secondary and have a lot of success. 250+ yards and 2TDs.

2. Jake Delhomme vs. Oakland Raiders. About the only thing that could prevent Delhomme from having a big day is if the Raiders lay another egg like they did last Sunday. If that happens, RB DeAngelo Williams and RB Jonathan Stewart will be seeing the ball a lot. That being said, even in a rout, a quality fantasy day can still occur as QB Matt Ryan managed 220 yards and 2 TDs in Atlanta’s 24-0 win over the Raiders. In this contest, look for Delhomme to locate WR Muhammed on the shorter routes while targeting WR Smith on the medium to deeper routes, and when Safety Gibril Wilson cheats up to help out against the run, look for Delhomme to pop a play action pass deep to Smith who’ll take one 50+ yards to the house. This all adds up to 200+ yards and a few scores.

Studs:

1. Kurt Warner vs. St. Louis: in a game that was supposed to be a high scoring affair, one team lived up to that billing: Arizona. Warner located his receivers early and often and finished the day with 342 yards and 2TDs.

2. Donovan McNabb vs. Seattle. It sure didn’t start out well early on (57 yards, 1INT), but McNabb picked it up in the 2nd half to finish his day off with 349 passing yards and 2 TDs. In a game that the Seahawks constantly put eight men in the box in order to take away RB Brian Westbrook, McNabb took advantage of his outside match-ups and the result was a big day from #5.

3. Peyton Manning vs. New England. This wasn’t the air-it-out football game we predicted, mostly because New England used a ball control offense throughout, but in the end Peyton did manage to throw for 254 yards and 2 TDs. He also completed a two-point conversion to WR Reggie Wayne.

Duds:

1. JaMarcus Russell vs. Atlanta. This one definitely takes the cake, and I’m quite confident in saying that we will not see another performance this season as bad as the one Russell had yesterday. His final numbers were 31 passing yards with one INT and one lost fumble. If not for his 46 yards on the ground, he would’ve ended the day with negative fantasy points. And what’s really funny is some guy actually started him in my league.

2. Matt Schaub vs. Minnesota. Ok, well this is not entirely his fault because he did have to leave the game with a knee injury at the half, but during the time he was in there, he did manage to earn dud status. He finished off with 138 passing yards, one INT and a lost fumble.

3. Brett Favre vs. Buffalo. Do you think Mangini’s little talk with him during the week about cutting down on turnovers had an effect? Aside from one horrendous throw which was intercepted and returned for a TD, he was very cautious for most of the day. That’s great for the Jets but terrible for fantasy owners. His final stat line was 201 passing yards and one INT.