Pro Football 101

Since we’re only discussing sub .500 teams at this point in the NFL, my guess would have to be the San Diego Chargers. From a talent standpoint, they rank 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Too bad they don’t hand out Lombardi trophies for talent. If they did, we’d have the San Diego Chargers vs. the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl 43. Of course, since the game would have to be played, there’d probably be 25 fouls committed between both teams, at least 4 turnovers, poor defense and inconsistent offensive play. But back to my main topic, here are some reasons why I think San Diego will make a late season playoff push even if they lose this weekend to the New Orleans Saints in London.

1st off, 80% of the league is average. This is what parity has done to the game. 2nd, as amazing as this sounds, 75% of head coaches out there are actually on equal footing with Norv Turner, which is not a strong endorsement for league coaching. 3rd, the Bolts have one of the easiest remaining schedules left of any team. In division play alone, they still have two games against Kansas City and one vs Oakland and Denver, both in San Diego, so right there are four you can chalk up in the ‘W’ column.

For San Diego to get back on track however, they need to get the running game corrected. No, Tomlinson has not aged to the point where he’s no longer an effective runner; Turner’s scheme isn’t getting the job done. Without being able to run, San Diego will continue to be put into poor 3rd down passing situations against good teams and this will keep the offense underachieving.

Defensively, they need to fire their coordinator, Ted Cottrell. In fact, what they’re waiting for is anyone’s guess. This man is afraid to bring pressure at opposing quarterbacks and this makes the secondary vulnerable against the pass. Quarterbacks who have all day to throw = high completion %-ages, which = sustained drives that result in a lot of scores. For the Bolts to get back to being one of the best defenses in football, they need to bring pressure; otherwise, all the money they’ve spent on that side of the ball will go to waste.

So as you watch the rest of the season play out, look for two things: whether Tomlinson is able to run the ball consistently (4 yards/carry) and if the defense gets to the QB – either by way of quarterback hurries or sacks. If this happens, instead of going down as one of the biggest busts of 2008, they’ll have a good shot at becoming one of the major contenders in January. Only time will tell.

In Week 7, we hit the trifecta. All three of our picks vs. the spread covered: Tennessee (-9) vs. KC; Buffalo (even) vs. San Diego and the New York Giants (-10.5) vs. San Francisco. Our money line pick… not so much. For week 8, here’s whom we at Pro Football 101 like:

Best Bet:

NEW YORK JETS (-13) vs. Kansas City. Although 13 points is a large number, when you look at Jets’ opponent, the Chiefs, you realize it’s not. They’ve been outscore 72-14 in their last two road contests. Being forced to play with both its back-up QB and back-up RB, we like a big effort out of the Jets’ D and offensively, we see New York pounding the ball with RB Jones before letting Favre take some shots down field. Look for an easy rout in the Meadowlands.

Next in Line:

TAMPA BAY (+2) vs. Dallas. This one is actually a tough call because we’re all waiting for Dallas, and its abundance of talent, to put it all together and play like we know they’re capable of. Since “putting it all together” might just be an illusion, we’re going to go with the more physically, and mentally tough team: Tampa Bay. The Bucs bring in an impressive 5-2 record and are playing very well. Offensively, since Garcia has re-emerged as the starting QB, things have been more consistent and we like Tampa to pass all over the Cowboys’ beleaguered secondary. Defensively, we see the Bucs really getting after the run and 40-year old QB Brad Johnson, so expect a mini upset this week in Big D.

SAN FRANCISCO (-5) vs. Seattle. At 1st glance, this pick appears risky due to San Francisco’s 2-5 record, but we feel the team will come out this Sunday and play a very spirited game for new head coach Mike Singletary in an attempt to prove it was Nolan’s fault that the team had struggled, not the players. On the other side, the Seahawks come into this game like a wounded gazelle; they’re there for the taking. Without QB Matt Hasselback, the offense hasn’t been able to find a rhythm and this has led to its defense being on the field for prolonged periods of time, and thus wearing down late in games. Look for SF to attack offensively on the ground with RB Gore and then defensively, get after back-up QB Seneca Wallace and pull out a home victory by at least 7.

Money Line:

NEW ORLEANS (+140) vs. San Diego. I don’t know about you, but it’s just really hard to endorse a Norv Turner led team when favored and playing on the road (it’s technically a road game since it’s being held in London). While the Saints are dealing with their fair share of injuries too, the latest being RB Bush, we think there will be added motivation on Drew Brees side to stick it to his former employer and show them just what a mistake they made by letting him walk. Look for the Saints to once again contain RB Tomlinson, who has been not running the football well of late, and then drop extra coverage back to limit Rivers damage through the air. On the other side of the ball, look for the Saints to employ a power running game with RB McAllister and Thomas and then attack through the air, which is San Diego’s weakness. In what should be a close contest, we like the Saints to pull out the victory.

Season vs. spread: 8-3-1

Money Line Winners: Arizona (+210) week 6 over Dallas