Pro Football 101

Fantasy Rankings: NFC North TEs in 2009

3 07 2009

This is certainly one of the weaker divisions in fantasy football for tight ends, but a few at the top could end up being valuable contributors to your team by the season’s end.

1. Greg Olsen

Olsen is a talented, third-year TE, whose productivity to this point has been hindered from mediocre quarter back play. Last year, in his second year in the NFL, he finished with 54 catches, for 574 yards and five touchdowns.

He now has a real quarterback throwing the ball his way and with very few receiving threats on the outside, look for Cutler to target Olsen plenty. He should finish with over 750 yards and eight-to-10 touchdowns.

2. Visanthe Shiancoe

Last year was a breakout season for Shiancoe, who for years failed to do anything of consequence. But in 2008, he finished with just under 600 yards and seven touchdowns.

If the long standing rumor of Favre joining the Vikings becomes a reality, then Shiancoe’s stock instantly rises. The veteran quarterback knows how to utilize his tight ends and will locate Visanthe between 60 and 70 times for over 700 yards. He should then average around six-to-eight touchdowns.

3. Donald Lee

The Packers’ offense doesn’t necessarily run through its tight ends, but it has always made use of them near the goal line, which was the case last year as Lee hauled in five touchdowns on just 39 receptions.

Look for Lee to play a similar role in the 2009 version of the Packers offense and remain a key target in the red zone.

4. Brandon Pettigrew

The highly touted tight end from Oklahoma St. instantly becomes the Lions starter in his rookie season. Pettigrew possesses a healthy combination of strength, speed, and hands, and should make his presence felt in the middle of the field.

From a fantasy perspective it’s probably not wise to expect too much in year one, but he could become a viable threat after the midpoint of the season.

Draft Tip

While none of these tight ends will go early in the draft, Olsen does have the ability to end up a standout fantasy player when all is said and done. If you can get him after round six, it’s a good spot.

Shiancoe will be a nice choice after round eight, while Lee can probably be picked towards the end of the draft (he will provide value because of his touchdowns).

If you have the opportunity to land Pettigrew at the end of the draft, he could turn into a nice late season fantasy sleeper.

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Fantasy Rankings: NFC East TEs in 2009

2 07 2009

The NFC East features talented tight ends across the board, and it all starts with Jason Witten down in Big D.

1. Jason Witten

Witten might be the best all-around tight end in the game today, and he and Romo have developed an awesome rapport over the past two and a half years.

In 2008, Witten finished with 81 catches for over 900 yards and 4 TDs.

And this year, T.O. is gone. True, the extra attention given to Owens will probably shift over to Witten, but the Cowboys have enough weapons to isolate Witten on linebackers and safeties, and he’ll still find ways to produce.

Expect a 1,000-yard season with between eight and 10 touchdowns.

2. Chris Cooley

Cooley is a very talented tight end who appears to be a notch below the top fantasy tight ends in the game today.

Last year, he finished with over 80 catches for 849 yards, but only managed one touchdown as the team had to learn Jim Zorn’s offense, which wasn’t the smoothest process.

In year two, expect things to get smoother for Cooley and quarterback Jason Campbell. Over 800 yards receiving and between six and eight touchdowns certainly seems within reach.

3. Kevin Boss

By the end of the season, it could be Boss who sits in the second spot on the list.

The rapidly improving third-year tight end could have a much larger role in the Giants’ offense with the offseason departures of Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer.

In just his second year in the league, he more than filled the hole left by Jeremy Shockey by hauling in six touchdowns on just 33 catches.

This year, expect him to be more involved and finish with between 50-60 catches and six to eight touchdowns.

4. Brent Celek

Rookie Cornelius Ingram might end up being the starting tight end in Philly, but we think it’ll be Celek, who was a force late and caught 10 balls for 83 yards and two touchdowns in the NFC Championship Game.

In just his second year in the league, Celek showed that he was able to exploit mismatches over the middle of the field and make the tough catch in traffic.

And as he and McNabb developed a nice chemistry in the postseason, look for it to carry over in 2009 with 600 yards and at least five touchdowns.

Draft Tip

Witten, Cooley and Boss are all starters on fantasy teams, and look for Witten to come off the board as early as round three. Cooley and Boss should be around after round six, and Celek will be there for the pickings towards the end of the draft.

One potential fantasy sleeper, who was not mentioned in this edition is Dallas tight end Martellus Bennett. The talented second-year player could make some noise, so make sure to remember him late on draft day.

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Fantasy Rankings: NFC South TEs in 2009

1 07 2009

After a few offseason trades, the NFC South is well represented at Tight End, with perhaps the best at the position now calling this division home.

1. Tony Gonzalez

Gonzalez’s arrival in Atlanta instantly makes him the top fantasy TE in the division. Stuck in a horrible situation playing for a 2-14 team last year, Gonzo had one of his finest seasons, with 96 catches, 1,058 yards and 11 TDs.

And now Matt Ryan’s throwing the ball to him. Look for Gonzalez to be heavily utilized in the passing game and have another 1,000 plus yard, double digit TD season.

2. Kellen Winslow

Acquiring Winslow was a very nice move by Tampa. The talented TE needed a change of scenery after an extremely disappointing beginning to his Cleveland career which consisted of his missing a few seasons from off-field injuries.

In 2008, playing in a troubled Browns’ offense, he totaled just 428 yards and three TDs while playing in 10 game—this coming after his breakout 2007 season.

This year, look for Winslow to rediscover his game and post at least 60 catches, for 800 yards and 7 TDs.

3. Jeremy Shockey

This is really a make or break year for Shockey, who has always ranked well in fantasy due to the hype he received from his rookie season. But in all truthfulness, back-up TE, Billy Miller, played better than he did last year.

In what was expected to be a move which he reignited his career, Shockey managed just 50 catches and zero TDs, even with Drew Brees as his QB.

We’ll give him the benefit of the doubt one more time: Look for a 60-70 catch and 5 TDs.

4. Billy Miller

We’d normally feature a Panther is this slot, but since their leading TE, Dante Rosario, managed only 209 yards and one TD on just 18 catches, it’s quite clear that the TE position has little to no role the Panthers’ offense.

Miller on the other hand, playing in a very potent offense, hauled in 45 balls for nearly 600 yards.

Look for a similar stat line in 2009 as Brees likes to look for his TE’s over the middle.

Draft Tip

Gonzalez should be one of, if not the top TE drafted, and hear his name called from the third round on.

Winslow is still a starting caliber fantasy TE and will be a nice pick after round six.

Shockey could actually end up as a strong fantasy sleeper as he’s certain to be overlooked following last year’s disappointing season while Miller would be a good back-up to add depth to your roster.

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Fantasy Rankings: AFC East QBs in 2009

30 06 2009

The AFC East features the best QB in the NFL, two others who are steady but unspectacular for your fantasy team, and a rookie.

1. Tom Brady

The encore to his record-breaking, 50 TD season was a severe knee injury in week one that put Brady out for the entire 2008 season, with some concern that it would carry into this season.

But from the little we saw of a recent minicamp workout, he appears to be ahead of schedule and set to go from the start.

If so, with Moss, Welker, and now Galloway—who’ll most likely be called upon to run post patterns—look for another top-tier season with over 4,000 yards and 35-40 TDs.

2. Trent Edwards

In his brief two-year career, Edwards has been efficient, but not flashy. The system and personnel have deterred big numbers, and in 2008 he finished with 2,699 yards and 11 TDs.

This year, things could be vastly different. Owens arrival gives Edwards a huge target to throw to and makes Evans more dangerous. And with RB Lynch out for the first three games, the passing game should be more relied on. Look for Edwards, who looks like a nice fantasy sleeper pick, to take a big step forward with over 3,500 yards and 20 TDs.

3. Chad Pennington

Pennington is as steady as they come and an extremely cerebral QB. That’s not the problem; the problem is he lacks a big arm and rarely posts the numbers you need to be a top-flight fantasy QB. He still managed over 3,600 yards and 19 TDs.

This year it looks like more of the same, or a slight drop off, as the Dolphins have the league’s toughest schedule. But some of the younger receivers (Ginn, Camarillo, Bess) are maturing, and that could lead to some big plays. Look for another 3,250-3,500 yards and 17-20 TDs.

4. Mark Sanchez

In two years, he’ll probably be second on this list. But not as a rookie. The first round pick from USC has a very strong arm, pinpoint accuracy, and is a great all-around athlete. However, he will be utilized much like Joe Flacco was in year one, as a game manager.

Expect between 2,000-2,500 yards and 10-12 TDs.

Draft Tip

Brady went as high as No. 2 in the draft last year but won’t go until round two this year, as there’s still concern over his knee. Edwards and Pennington will go around the same time, probably after round eight. Sanchez will only be drafted as a number three with the hopes that he turns out like Matt Ryan, which is extremely unlikely.

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Fantasy Rankings: AFC North QBs in 2009

29 06 2009

The AFC North is an interesting division that possess two top fantasy QB’s, two others with potential, and while Carson Palmer is probably the best of the bunch, at this point, Big Ben gets the nod.

1. Ben Roethlisberger

Roethlisberger will enter his sixth full season in the league as the proud owner of two Super Bowl rings after his Steelers defeated the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII.

In 2008, he threw for over 3,300 yards with 19 total TDs, two coming via the run.

This year, the same cast of characters are back, but Santonio Holmes is a year older and more dangerous. Big Ben’s offensive weapons remain intact and strong.

Look for 3,500 yards and between 23 to 26 TDs.

2. Carson Palmer

Palmer is the most talented QB in the division stuck on a horrible team. When healthy, he’s right there in the conversation with Manning, Brady and Brees.

Last year, a lingering elbow injury forced him to miss 12 games.

After an off season to strengthen his elbow, Palmer is healthy, and Ochocinco looks rearing to go.

Mix that in with some of the younger receivers and look for a nice comeback season. He will get over 3,500 yards with 20—25TDs.

3. Joe Flacco

For most of his rookie season, he wasn’t called upon to do much, aside from managing the offense and not making mistakes. But towards the end, as Flacco’s confidence grew, OC Cam Cameron opened up the playbook ever so slightly and he produced, finishing with just under 3,000 yards and 16 total TDs, two coming via the run.

While this will still be a team that relies on its running game and defense to win games, look for another step forward in year two with over 3,000 yards and between 18 to 20 TDs.

4. Derek Anderson

Brady Quinn could certainly end up as the starter, and if so, our projections wouldn’t differ too drastically, but our thinking is that Anderson’s the better QB, and his problems last year were due to a horrendous offensive unit and the incessant drops by WR Braylon Edwards in crucial situations.

The forecast in the Dawg Pound isn’t very bright this season as the team dealt TE Winslow to the Bucs and WR Stallworth is suspended indefinitely.

Regardless, look for a team that relies heavily on the run and for Anderson, or Quinn, to throw for 2,500 - 2,700 yards with 15-18 TDs.

Draft Tip

Roethlisberger will probably be selected before Palmer. His name will be called from round four on.

Palmer, coming off a serious injury, will probably last until round six, and could potentially be an excellent fantasy sleeper.

Flacco will be available after round ten and you should be able to scoop up Anderson or Quinn at the end of the draft.

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Fantasy Rankings: AFC South QBs in 2009

26 06 2009

In this division, it all starts and ends with Peyton Manning for fantasy QBs—as it has for the last decade. From that point on, it’s mostly guys who can be used as fill-ins when a starter is down or for favorable match-ups.

1. Peyton Manning

The perennial top two or three fantasy QB is back again, after capping off an impressive 2008 campaign with over 4,000 yards and 27 TDs—even though the Colts suffered through numerous injuries to key offensive skill players.

This year, long time standout, Marvin Harrison, is no longer there. But with the likes of Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, and Joseph Addai out of the backfield to throw the ball to, things should be just fine.

Look for another 3,70o yard-plus season and over 27 TDs.

2. Matt Schaub

The presence of WR Andre Johnson alone puts Schaub in the number two position for the AFC South. IDespite missing five games with a knee injry in 2008, he still managed to throw for over 3,000 yards and 15 TDs.

This year, the Texans have the look of a potential playoff team, and have assembled lots of young talent at the offensive skill positions, so look for Schaub to take a big step forward and throw for over 3,500 yards and 20 TDs.

David Garrard

The Jaguars season imploded in Week One of 2008 after two of their five starting offensive lineman went down with injury for the year.

There was little chance for success from that point on, as it’s crucial for an offense to have time to execute its plays—something the Jags weren’t afforded. Overall, Garrard finished with over 3,600 yards and 15 TDs.

This year, the Jags acquired long time Rams standout, Torry Holt, in an attempt to boost the offense. While he’s certainly not what he once was, he should provide a safety valve for Garrard and help bring along the younger receivers.

Look for another 3,500 yard season with 15-18 TDs.

Kerry Collins

Vince Young’s infamous actions and behavior in Week One of 2008 opened the door to 36-year old Collins. He took full advantage of the situation, leading the Titans to a 13-3 record and passing for over 2,600 yards with 12 TDs.

But make no mistake about it, this is a running team first, and Collins is nothing more than a game manager.

While the team invested a first round pick in WR Kenny Britt and signed Nate Washington away from the Steelers—potentially leading to a few long TDs—expect similar numbers to last year: 2,500-2,800 yards and 12-15TDs.

Draft Tip

Manning should be the third QB taken in this year’s fantasy draft, lasting no longer than round two. Schaub will be a borderline starter and see his name called after round seven, although he could end up an excellent fantasy sleeper at that point.

Garrard will most likely end up going shortly after Schaub, while Collins should only be picked up for depth and used as a one time fill-in when there’s a favorable match-up.

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Fantasy Rankings: AFC West QBs in 2009

25 06 2009

The AFC West has only one blue chip fantasy QB this season, another potential starter, and two more who should only be thought of only as last alternatives.

1. Phillip Rivers

The decline of LaDainian Tomlinson’s health and numbers, coupled with the fact that the Chargers were often playing from behind and forced to pass, allowed Rivers to enjoy his finest fantasy football season to date, finishing with over 4,000 yards and 34 TDs.

This year, his stock will be high once again. He has a very strong supporting cast, including a receiver on the rise, Vincent Jackson, favorable weather in his home park, and an incredibly easy division.

Expect another 3,500 yard plus season with 27-30 TDs.

2. Matt Cassel

The jury is still very much out on Matt Cassel. Although he did an admirable job filling in for Tom Brady, leading the Pats to 11 wins and throwing for over 3,500 yards and 21 TDs, he did have Bill Belichick masterminding the game plan, and receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to.

Things are different in KC. Future Hall Of Famer Tony Gonzalez is no longer there, but rising star Dwayne Bowe is. Add in a savvy offensive-minded coach in Todd Haley and it gives you reason to believe he’ll reach 3,000 yards with 17-20 TDs.

3. Kyle Orton

In 2008 as Bear, Orton put together a respectable season and threw for more than 2,900 yards and 18 TDs. And he did it without much help from the receiver position. This year, he finds himself being called upon to run Josh McDaniels’ system, which calls for short, safe passes, and long, methodical drives.

In theory this is good for a team; it’s just not a strategy you want from your fantasy QB. There are other issues that need to be resolved with WR Brandon Marshall and TE Tony Scheffler, both who have asked for off season trades.

Overall, expect between 2,600-2,900 yards and 16-19 TDs as McDaniels will rely heavily on Moreno.

4. JaMarcus Russell

It’s coming pretty close to sink or swim time for Russell. The top overall draft pick in 2007, who Lane Kiffin was against drafting, saw his rookie campaign go to waste after a holdout and year two fare slightly better. He ended with 2,400 yards and 13TDs.

The Raiders went out and grabbed speedy receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey in this year’s draft with the hope of providing more weapons for the strong armed QB to throw to. Look for just between 2,500-2,700 yards and an increase to 16 TDs.

Draft Tip

Rivers has firmly entrenched himself as a top fantasy QB in 2009 and will be selected most likely between round’s three through five. Cassel still has to prove himself, and will probably go after round ten as someone’s number two QB, but could prove an excellent sleeper pick. Same goes for Orton who can be had towards the end of the draft and it’s probably a prudent decision to leave Russell off your roster.

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Fantasy Rankings: NFC West QBs in 2009

24 06 2009

The NFC West features one of the top fantasy QBs in the game, two others trying to atone for a poor 2008, and an excellent potential sleeper.

1. Kurt Warner

Warner had a tremendous season in 2008. Playing with a wealth of talent at the receiver position, and on a team which abandoned the run, the 37-year old vet threw for more than 4,500 yards and 30 TDs, much to fantasy owners’ delight.

A repeat of those numbers in 2009 will be hard to duplicate however. First, there’s always the Super Bowl hangover, and second, there have been some key losses to personnel. The selection of RB Beanie Wells in the first round also suggests that the team will be more committed to the run, so look for between 3,600-3,900 yards and 25-28 TDs.

2. Matt Hasselback

Hasselback suffered through a miserable 2008 season and missed a lot of time battling a lingering injury. He finished with just 1,200 yards and five TDs in seven games.

This year, he should be healthy once again, so now it’s a matter of getting back in sync with his receivers and quickly developing a rapport with T.J. Houshmandezadeh.

Blessed with an extremely easy schedule, look for another 3,000-yard season and 20 TDs.

3. Marc Bulger

Bulger suffered through a miserable 2008 campaign as well, at one point being benched by then head coach, Scott Linehan. He finished with a little more than 2,700 yards and 11 TDs.

And this year, a familiar face will no longer be there: Torry Holt, who was a salary cap casualty.

While second-year receiver Donnie Avery does provide promise, look for the Rams to rely heavily on the running game and for Bulger’s numbers to remain middle of the pack: 3,000 yards and 15-18 TDs.

4. Shaun Hill

In 2008, once the J.T. O’sullivan experiment came to an end, which also coincided with the firing of Mike Nolan, Hill came on and finished with more than 2,000 yards and 13 TDs in just eight games.

This year, he has even more firepower at the skill positions. The Niners used the 10th overall pick on Michael Crabtree. Second-year receiver Josh Morgan is raring to go, and there’s hope that Singletary will finally help Vernon Davis begin to realize his potential.

Look for Hill to throw for more than 2,750 yards and 18 TDs.

Draft Tip

Warner could be the fourth overall QB drafted, and gone by Round Four. Hasselback and Bulger are no longer considered quality fantasy starters and will fall past Round Eight. Hill, who could be a decent fantasy sleeper, will probably be around at the end, or as a waiver wire pick-up.

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Fantasy Rankings: NFC North QBs in 2009

23 06 2009

The NFC North is one of the weaker divisions in football and has only one blue chip fantasy QB in 2009.

1. Aaron Rodgers

Any fears that Green Bay fans had last year of whether the franchise would survive the loss of Brett Favre, were erased by the stellar play of Rodgers.

While the team suffered through a horrendous 2008 campaign, it was NOT because of the play at the QB position. In his first year as a full-time starter, he finished the season with over 4,000 yards and 28 TDs.

Having already developed an excellent rapport with both Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, and with the expected maturation of the younger receivers, look for another 4,000 yard season and between 28-32 TDs.

Jay Cutler

Cutler certainly possesses the strongest arm in the division and had an excellent fantasy season in 2008, finishing with over 4,500 yards and 25 TDs. But that was Denver, and this is Chicago. The drop off from Marshall, Royal, and Scheffler to Hester, Davies, and Iglesias is substantial.

Another issue he’ll now have to contend with is the weather of Soldier Field. Frigid temperatures and powerful winds aren’t conducive to aerial assaults, and the Bears personnel isn’t built for that either.

Look for a significant drop off yardage this season and for Cutler to notch 3,250 yards passing and 20-23 TDs.

Brett Favre*

The asterisk is only there because the move is not yet official. But we all know it’s only a matter of time. And that’s music to Vikes fan’s ears as the only gaping hole on the roster resides at the QB position. In 2008, Tavaris Jackson showed us he wasn’t the answer and neither is career back-up, Sage Rosenfels.

But Favre, even at age 39, would be a big upgrade for the Vikes, who already have a lot of offensive firepower at the skill positions and added the wild card from this year’s NFL Draft, Percy Harvin. Expect a 3,000 yard season with over 20 TDs.

Matt Stafford

In fantasy football, as in the NFL, it’s never a good idea to bank on rookie QBs; especially ones drafted in Detroit. While Daunte Culpepper should get the nod early on, as the early season losses begin to mount, so will the pressure to get the top overall draft pick on the field.

The one bright spot he has going for him is number 81, Calvin Johnson, who makes anyone look good throwing the ball to him, but overall Stafford should be stayed away from. And anything over 10 TDs in his rookie season would be considered a success.

Draft Tip

Rodgers has worked his way into a top five to seven fantasy QB and should come off the board early, no later than round four. Cutler will fall a bit further as Chicago’s not the most ideal home for a passer, and Favre, who could end up overlooked and turn into a solid fantasy sleeper, will go between round’s eight and 10. Stafford will not be drafted, nor should he ever start for your team in 2009.

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Fantasy Rankings: NFC East QBs in 2009

22 06 2009

The NFC East QBs already face an uphill battle because all four teams in the division possess top-10 defenses from last season, but two still rank in the top eight QBs in the league.

1. Donovan McNabb

McNabb saved his season—and maybe his Philly career—after his benching in Baltimore last season, which came on the heels of five picks over a two game stretch. From that point on, he tossed nine TDs and one INT and carried the Birds all the way to NFC Championship Game. Overall in 2008, he finished just under 4,000 yards and 23 TDs.

This year, he has even more weapons at his disposal. In addition to star RB Brian Westbrook and second year WR DeSean Jackson, the Eagles solidified their offensive line and moved up in the draft to select WR Jeremy Maclin, who should provide an immediate impact in the slot.

Look for a 4,000 yard season and between 25-30 TDs.

2. Tony Romo

Coming into last year’s fantasy draft, Romo was the second rated QB on the draft board after a stellar 2007 campaign. After a tumultuous year, one that included a broken pinkie finger and dissent amongst the receiving corps, mainly T.O., the Cowboys finished off 9-and-7 and missed the post season.In 13 games he finished with 3,448 yards and 26 TDs.

This year, T.O. is gone, which while good for team chemistry, is probably not for fantasy. WR Roy Williams will have to prove he’s capable of being the number one in Big D, otherwise team’s will focus on Witten, which will affect Romo.

Look for another 3,500 yard season, and between 22-25 TDs.

3. Eli Manning

The Manning you want in fantasy football resides in Indianapolis, as the Colts offense is built around the passing game. In New York, the offense begins with the running game, and that will be emphasized to an even greater extent with the release of Plaxico Burress in the off season. In 2008, Manning finished with over 3,200 yards and 21 TDs.

This year, look for a similar stat line: 3,200 yards and between 20-25 TDs.

Although most will point to his drop off in play when Plax was suspended, the offensive game plan didn’t adjust. With an entire off season to adjust according to their personnel, the Giants’ passing game will now focus on its receivers strengths: quickness and speed as opposed to height.

4. Jason Campbell

Does anyone come into the season feeling more slighted than Jason Campbell? The Skins first tried to deal for Jay Cutler, and then attempted to move up in the draft for Mark Sanchez. In the end, none of those deals worked out. In his first year running Zorn’s offense, he amassed 3,245 yards and 13 TDs.

If he can get some more productivity out of last year’s top receivers, Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, to go along with Santana Moss, look for Campbell to once again break the 3,000 yard mark and throw between 15-18 TDs in 2009.

Draft Tip

McNabb will be the first QB off the board from the division, most likely between round’s three and five. Romo will also be picked around that time frame, while Manning will last past round 10. Campbell will go towards the end of the draft and be used solely as a fill-in when your starter is out.

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